Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (57%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Alanyaspor face Fenerbahçe.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Fenerbahçe travel to Alanya Oba Stadium to take on Alanyaspor in Süper Lig (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 March 2027 at 12:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Alanyaspor at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Fenerbahçe — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Fenerbahçe have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fenerbahçe are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Fenerbahçe have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 8 of the 10 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Alanyaspor.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 10 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 17 Oct 2026, ended Alanyaspor 0–3 Fenerbahçe — a Fenerbahçe win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 8 of 10 H2H matches, and at 3.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 70%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 58% versus Fenerbahçe 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 49% | Fenerbahçe 69%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Alanyaspor surrender their half-time lead 60% of the time, while Fenerbahçe have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 70% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 0.82 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.756 / defence 0.970 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.274 / defence 0.680. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.317. Alanyaspor's attack rating of 0.756 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Fenerbahçe bring a tight defence (rating 0.680, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Alanyaspor's projected output down. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack rating of 1.274, which lifts their away xG to 1.63. Data: built from Alanyaspor's last 45 games and Fenerbahçe's last 45.
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 19% | Draw 25% | Fenerbahçe 57%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 5.32 | Draw 4.05 | Fenerbahçe 1.77. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (57%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 10 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Alanyaspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Fenerbahçe 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 25 | Venue: Alanya Oba Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 March 2027 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 19% | Draw 25% | Fenerbahçe 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Alanyaspor 0.82 / Fenerbahçe 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.756 / def 0.970 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.274 / def 0.680 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Fenerbahçe xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe FAQs
What time does Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 14 March 2027 at Alanya Oba Stadium.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Alanya Oba Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 25) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 19% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 57% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Alanyaspor's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Fenerbahçe's defensive record (0.68x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Alanyaspor's last 45 games and Fenerbahçe's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.6%), 0-2 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
19%
5.32
25%
4.05
57%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.45
1.63
Fenerbahçe xG
5.32
19%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
1.77
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
20%
5.09
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
4%
27.05
25%
4.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 14.1 | 11.5 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.63 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Alanyaspor come into this having played 45 games, going 10W 19D 16L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 2.07 PPG from 45 outings (27W 12D 6L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.98 PPG clear of Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Alanyaspor's home form reads 7W 7D 8L across their last 22 home games, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 2.00 points per game from their last 22 away games (13W 5D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.36 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Alanyaspor (Home) vs Fenerbahçe (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alanyaspor
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe Form FAQs
What form are Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 10W 19D 16L in their last 45 games (1.09 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 27W 12D 6L in their last 45 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.27 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Fenerbahçe have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Sep 2022, when Fenerbahçe won Fenerbahçe 5-0 Alanyaspor.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
8
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Alanyaspor have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Fenerbahçe 3-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 46%, Fenerbahçe 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Alanyaspor) and 68% (Fenerbahçe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 46%; Alanyaspor have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 46% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Alanyaspor's matches and 68% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 86% of Fenerbahçe's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.