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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Eyüpspor make the trip to Alanya Oba Stadium to face Alanyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 February 2027 at 18:00 UTC.

Form

Alanyaspor (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Alanyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Alanyaspor at Alanya Oba Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Eyüpspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Eyüpspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Eyüpspor have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Alanyaspor against 1.10 for Eyüpspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Alanyaspor have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Eyüpspor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 4 meetings, Eyüpspor have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Alanyaspor's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 1–3 with Eyüpspor winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Eyüpspor have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading & In-Play

Alanyaspor — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Eyüpspor — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 62% versus Eyüpspor 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 47% | Eyüpspor 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.74 xG and Eyüpspor 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.047 / defence 1.035 | Eyüpspor attack 1.007 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Alanyaspor games / 34 Eyüpspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 48% | Draw 27% | Eyüpspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Eyüpspor 4.17. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 70% | Eyüpspor 60% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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