Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Eyüpspor make the trip to Alanya Oba Stadium to face Alanyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Alanyaspor (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alanyaspor at Alanya Oba Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Eyüpspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Eyüpspor have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Alanyaspor against 1.40 for Eyüpspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 5 meetings, Eyüpspor have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Alanyaspor's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2026, ended 1–2 with Eyüpspor winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Eyüpspor have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Alanyaspor — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Eyüpspor — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 60% versus Eyüpspor 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 45% | Eyüpspor 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.73 xG and Eyüpspor 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.014 / defence 0.872 | Eyüpspor attack 0.738 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.230. Data: 38 Alanyaspor games / 38 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 60% | Draw 23% | Eyüpspor 17%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Eyüpspor 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Alanyaspor (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Alanyaspor 70% | Eyüpspor 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Alanya Oba Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 60% | Draw 23% | Eyüpspor 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 45% | xG Alanyaspor 1.73 / Eyüpspor 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.014 / def 0.872 | Eyüpspor attack 0.738 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Eyüpspor xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 7 February 2027 at Alanya Oba Stadium.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Alanya Oba Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 60% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor?
Record (5 meetings): Alanyaspor 0W | Draws 1 | Eyüpspor 4W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Eyüpspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 1.01x the league average against Eyüpspor's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Eyüpspor's attack (0.74x) against Alanyaspor's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.5%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
60%
1.68
23%
4.26
17%
5.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.52
0.79
Eyüpspor xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
5.92
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
27%
3.70
3%
33.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 11.0 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 0.79 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Alanyaspor's recent record stands at 9W 17D 12L from 38 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Eyüpspor, meanwhile, have gone 9W 9D 20L across 38 games — 0.95 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Eyüpspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Alanyaspor against 0.95 for Eyüpspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Alanyaspor have managed 7W 5D 6L from 18 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eyüpspor's away record stands at 3W 5D 10L across 18 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 0.92 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Early Season
Eyüpspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 9W 17D 12L in their last 38 games (1.16 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 9W 9D 20L in their last 38 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Eyüpspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.44 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Eyüpspor have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Eyüpspor won 3-0 on 19 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alanyaspor have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Eyüpspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Alanyaspor
1
Draws
4
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor?
From 5 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 0, Eyüpspor have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Eyüpspor 2-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor?
Eyüpspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 44%, Eyüpspor 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Alanyaspor) and 44% (Eyüpspor).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Alanyaspor have failed to score in 28% of games; Eyüpspor in 61%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Eyüpspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 39% of Eyüpspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 44% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.