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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Eyüpspor make the trip to GAİN Park Stadyumu to face Alanyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 January 2026 at 11:30 UTC.

Form

Alanyaspor (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Alanyaspor at GAİN Park Stadyumu this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at GAİN Park Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Alanyaspor are significantly better at GAİN Park Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.

Eyüpspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Eyüpspor have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Alanyaspor against 0.70 for Eyüpspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Alanyaspor lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Eyüpspor winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Alanyaspor — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).

Eyüpspor — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 54% versus Eyüpspor 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 40% | Eyüpspor 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.25 xG and Eyüpspor 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.915 / defence 0.849 | Eyüpspor attack 0.713 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.272. Data: 55 Alanyaspor games / 55 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 44% | Draw 37% | Eyüpspor 19%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.27 | Draw 2.70 | Eyüpspor 5.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 20% | Eyüpspor 40% BTTS from recent games.

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