Alanyaspor 1-3 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Eyüpspor make the trip to GAİN Park Stadyumu to face Alanyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 January 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Alanyaspor (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor at GAİN Park Stadyumu this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at GAİN Park Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Alanyaspor are significantly better at GAİN Park Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Eyüpspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Eyüpspor have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Alanyaspor against 0.70 for Eyüpspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Alanyaspor lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Eyüpspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Alanyaspor — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Eyüpspor — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 54% versus Eyüpspor 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 40% | Eyüpspor 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.25 xG and Eyüpspor 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.915 / defence 0.849 | Eyüpspor attack 0.713 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.272. Data: 55 Alanyaspor games / 55 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 44% | Draw 37% | Eyüpspor 19%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.27 | Draw 2.70 | Eyüpspor 5.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 20% | Eyüpspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: GAİN Park Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 44% | Draw 37% | Eyüpspor 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Alanyaspor 1.25 / Eyüpspor 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.915 / def 0.849 | Eyüpspor attack 0.713 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Eyüpspor xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at GAİN Park Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Alanyaspor 1 - 3 Eyüpspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at GAİN Park Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 44% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 19% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor?
Record (3 meetings): Alanyaspor 0W | Draws 1 | Eyüpspor 2W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. Eyüpspor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 0.92x the league average against Eyüpspor's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Eyüpspor's attack (0.71x) against Alanyaspor's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
44%
2.28
37%
2.69
19%
5.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.02
0.77
Eyüpspor xG
2.28
44%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
5.24
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
5%
18.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 10.2 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.8 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 0.77 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Alanyaspor's recent record stands at 16W 19D 20L from 55 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eyüpspor, meanwhile, have gone 18W 14D 23L across 55 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Alanyaspor against 1.24 for Eyüpspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Alanyaspor have managed 11W 8D 8L from 27 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eyüpspor's away record stands at 6W 7D 14L across 27 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.18 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 16W 19D 20L in their last 55 games (1.22 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 18W 14D 23L in their last 55 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Eyüpspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.52 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Eyüpspor have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Eyüpspor won 3-0 on 19 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alanyaspor have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Eyüpspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Alanyaspor
1
Draws
4
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor?
From 5 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 0, Eyüpspor have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Eyüpspor 2-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor?
Eyüpspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Eyüpspor see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 48%, Eyüpspor 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Alanyaspor) and 41% (Eyüpspor).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Alanyaspor have failed to score in 26% of games; Eyüpspor in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Eyüpspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 48% of Eyüpspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 41% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eyüpspor cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Alanyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor beat Alanyaspor 1-3 at GAİN Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.25 xG and Eyüpspor 0.77 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Eyüpspor outscored their 0.77 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.92 / defence 0.85 against Eyüpspor attack 0.71 / defence 1.06, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 44% | Draw 37% | Eyüpspor 19%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Eyüpspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 40%, Eyüpspor 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.22 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eyüpspor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.