Alanyaspor 1-1 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Eyüpspor make the trip to Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu to face Alanyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 August 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Alanyaspor (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Alanyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Alanyaspor at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.89 xG and Eyüpspor 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.069 / defence 1.030 | Eyüpspor attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.218. Data: 38 Alanyaspor games / 0 Eyüpspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 55% | Draw 25% | Eyüpspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Eyüpspor 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Alanyaspor (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 55% | Draw 25% | Eyüpspor 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Alanyaspor 1.89 / Eyüpspor 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.069 / def 1.030 | Eyüpspor attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Eyüpspor xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Alanyaspor 1 - 1 Eyüpspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 55% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Alanyaspor (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 1.07x the league average against Eyüpspor's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Eyüpspor's attack (0.85x) against Alanyaspor's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 38/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
55%
1.82
25%
3.92
20%
5.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.95
1.07
Eyüpspor xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
5.11
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
15%
6.59
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
3%
33.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.5 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.07 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Pre-Season
Eyüpspor
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Eyüpspor have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Eyüpspor won 3-0 on 19 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alanyaspor have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Eyüpspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Alanyaspor
1
Draws
3
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 0, Eyüpspor have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Alanyaspor 1-3 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor?
Eyüpspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 1, as Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.89 xG and Eyüpspor 1.07 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Alanyaspor fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.07 / defence 1.03 against Eyüpspor attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 55% | Draw 25% | Eyüpspor 20%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.