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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Alanyaspor host Erzurumspor FK at Alanya Oba Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 October 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Alanyaspor — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Alanyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at Alanya Oba Stadium, Alanyaspor have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.92 xG and Erzurumspor FK 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.047 / defence 1.036 | Erzurumspor FK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Alanyaspor games / 0 Erzurumspor FK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 57% | Draw 25% | Erzurumspor FK 18%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Erzurumspor FK 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Alanyaspor (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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