Alanyaspor 1-2 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Alanyaspor and Başakşehir meet at GAİN Park Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 23). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Alanyaspor have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Alanyaspor's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Başakşehir (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Başakşehir have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
On a straight form reading, Başakşehir are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 9 H2H matches in our data: 4 wins for Alanyaspor, 3 for Başakşehir and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 9 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2025, ended Alanyaspor 1–1 Başakşehir — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Alanyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Başakşehir goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 57% versus Başakşehir 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 43% | Başakşehir 59%). Note also that Başakşehir surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Alanyaspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.01 xG and Başakşehir 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.900 / defence 0.993 | Başakşehir attack 1.225 / defence 0.815. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.314. Başakşehir have an above-average attack rating of 1.225, which lifts their away xG to 1.60. Data: built from Alanyaspor's last 58 games and Başakşehir's last 58.
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 20% | Draw 32% | Başakşehir 47%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 4.90 | Draw 3.11 | Başakşehir 2.11. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Başakşehir if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Alanyaspor 40% (last 10 home games) | Başakşehir 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 23 | Venue: GAİN Park Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 20% | Draw 32% | Başakşehir 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Alanyaspor 1.01 / Başakşehir 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.900 / def 0.993 | Başakşehir attack 1.225 / def 0.815 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Başakşehir xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir FAQs
What time does Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 21 February 2026 at GAİN Park Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Alanyaspor 1 - 2 Başakşehir.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at GAİN Park Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 23) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 20% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 47% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Alanyaspor and Başakşehir will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (0.90) and Başakşehir's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Başakşehir's attack (1.23x) against Alanyaspor's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from Alanyaspor's last 58 games and Başakşehir's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
20%
4.90
32%
3.11
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.61
1.60
Başakşehir xG
4.90
20%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
20%
4.95
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
4%
24.26
17%
5.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.60 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Alanyaspor come into this having played 58 games, going 17W 20D 21L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-W.
On the other side, Başakşehir sit at 1.50 PPG from 58 outings (25W 12D 21L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Alanyaspor against 1.50 for Başakşehir. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Alanyaspor's home form reads 12W 8D 9L across their last 29 home games, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Başakşehir have taken 1.45 points per game from their last 29 away games (13W 3D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.69 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
Alanyaspor (Home) vs Başakşehir (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alanyaspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir Form FAQs
What form are Alanyaspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 17W 20D 21L in their last 58 games (1.22 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 25W 12D 21L in their last 58 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.52 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Alanyaspor and Başakşehir, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
4
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Başakşehir?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Alanyaspor have won 4, Başakşehir have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: Alanyaspor 1-2 Başakşehir.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 52%, Başakşehir 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Alanyaspor) and 59% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Başakşehir in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alanyaspor and Başakşehir matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 52% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Alanyaspor and Başakşehir matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 59% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Başakşehir matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 69% of Başakşehir's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Alanyaspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Alanyaspor 1-2 at GAİN Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.01 xG and Başakşehir 1.60 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.90 / defence 0.99 against Başakşehir attack 1.23 / defence 0.81, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 20% | Draw 32% | Başakşehir 47%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 43%, Başakşehir 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Başakşehir's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.22 PPG, Başakşehir 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.