Alanyaspor 1-2 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Alanyaspor and Başakşehir meet at GAİN Park Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Alanyaspor have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's home record at GAİN Park Stadyumu: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at GAİN Park Stadyumu.
Başakşehir (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Başakşehir have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Başakşehir are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Alanyaspor, 3 for Başakşehir and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Alanyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Başakşehir goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 57% versus Başakşehir 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 43% | Başakşehir 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.01 xG and Başakşehir 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.900 / defence 0.993 | Başakşehir attack 1.225 / defence 0.815. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.314. Başakşehir have an above-average attack strength of 1.225 — the away xG of 1.60 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Alanyaspor games / 58 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 20% | Draw 32% | Başakşehir 47%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 5.00 | Draw 3.12 | Başakşehir 2.13. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Başakşehir if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Alanyaspor 40% | Başakşehir 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: GAİN Park Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 20% | Draw 32% | Başakşehir 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Alanyaspor 1.01 / Başakşehir 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.900 / def 0.993 | Başakşehir attack 1.225 / def 0.815 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Başakşehir xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at GAİN Park Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Alanyaspor 1 - 2 Başakşehir.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at GAİN Park Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 20% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 47% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Alanyaspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Başakşehir?
Record (9 meetings): Alanyaspor 4W | Draws 2 | Başakşehir 3W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Başakşehir in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Başakşehir (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (0.90) and Başakşehir's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Başakşehir's attack (1.23x) against Alanyaspor's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
20%
4.90
32%
3.11
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.61
1.60
Başakşehir xG
4.90
20%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
20%
4.95
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
4%
24.26
17%
5.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.60 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Alanyaspor come into this having played 58 games, going 17W 20D 21L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-W. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Başakşehir sit at 1.50 PPG from 58 outings (25W 12D 21L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Alanyaspor against 1.50 for Başakşehir. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Alanyaspor's home form reads 12W 8D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Başakşehir have taken 1.45 points per game from 29 outings (13W 3D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.69 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 17W 20D 21L in their last 58 games (1.22 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 25W 12D 21L in their last 58 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.52 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
4
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 4, Başakşehir have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Alanyaspor 1-2 Başakşehir.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 52%, Başakşehir 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Alanyaspor) and 59% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Başakşehir in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 52% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 59% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Alanyaspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Alanyaspor 1-2 at GAİN Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.01 xG and Başakşehir 1.60 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.90 / defence 0.99 against Başakşehir attack 1.23 / defence 0.81, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 20% | Draw 32% | Başakşehir 47%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 43%, Başakşehir 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Başakşehir's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.22 PPG, Başakşehir 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.