Alanyaspor 1-1 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Antalyaspor travel to Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu to take on Alanyaspor. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 May 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Alanyaspor have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Antalyaspor — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Antalyaspor have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Alanyaspor carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Alanyaspor register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Antalyaspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Alanyaspor, 3 for Antalyaspor and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Jan 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Antalyaspor in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 56% versus Antalyaspor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 62% | Antalyaspor 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 2.21 xG and Antalyaspor 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.181 / defence 1.078 | Antalyaspor attack 0.861 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.246. Antalyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Alanyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 73 Alanyaspor games / 73 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 60% | Draw 22% | Antalyaspor 18%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Antalyaspor 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Alanyaspor (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.21 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Antalyaspor lead the H2H ledger, but Alanyaspor carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 70% | Antalyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 24 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 60% | Draw 22% | Antalyaspor 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 62% | xG Alanyaspor 2.21 / Antalyaspor 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.181 / def 1.078 | Antalyaspor attack 0.861 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Antalyaspor xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 24 May 2024 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Alanyaspor 1 - 1 Antalyaspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 60% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor?
Record (5 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 1 | Antalyaspor 3W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Antalyaspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Alanyaspor's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Antalyaspor's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.21. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
60%
1.67
22%
4.48
18%
5.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.37
1.16
Antalyaspor xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
5.66
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
11%
9.14
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
2%
51.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.16 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alanyaspor's recent record stands at 23W 23D 27L from 73 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-D in the last five.
Antalyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 23W 20D 30L across 73 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.26 PPG, Antalyaspor on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Alanyaspor have managed 15W 11D 10L from 36 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antalyaspor's away record stands at 7W 9D 20L across 36 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.22 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Current Season
Antalyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 23W 23D 27L in their last 73 games (1.26 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 23W 20D 30L in their last 73 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.56 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Antalyaspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Alanyaspor
4
Draws
5
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 1, Antalyaspor have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Antalyaspor 0-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 56%, Antalyaspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Alanyaspor) and 42% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 50% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 42% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor finished level at 1-1 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 38, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 2.21 xG and Antalyaspor 1.16 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Alanyaspor fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.18 / defence 1.08 against Antalyaspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.21, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 60% | Draw 22% | Antalyaspor 18%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 62%, Antalyaspor 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.26 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.