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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Amed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Alanyaspor host Amed at Alanya Oba Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 May 2027 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Alanyaspor — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Alanyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Alanyaspor at Alanya Oba Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.91 xG and Amed 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.045 / defence 1.034 | Amed attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.144. Data: 34 Alanyaspor games / 0 Amed games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 57% | Draw 26% | Amed 18%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Amed 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Alanyaspor (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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