Alanyaspor vs Amed – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Amed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alanyaspor host Amed at Alanya Oba Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 May 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alanyaspor at Alanya Oba Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Amed stand at 2W 1D 1L from 4 Süper Lig matches — 1.75 PPG. Last five: W L W D. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 1.25. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Amed have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Amed — 0.55 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.75 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Amed in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 50% versus Amed 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 25% | Amed 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.96 xG and Amed 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.014 / defence 0.873 | Amed attack 0.890 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.230. Amed bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing Alanyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Alanyaspor games / 4 Amed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 61% | Draw 21% | Amed 18%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Amed 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Alanyaspor (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Amed (1.75 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 70% | Amed 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Amed | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Alanya Oba Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 May 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 61% | Draw 21% | Amed 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 53% | xG Alanyaspor 1.96 / Amed 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.014 / def 0.873 | Amed attack 0.890 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Amed xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Amed kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Amed is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 2 May 2027 at Alanya Oba Stadium.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Amed being played?
The match is being played at Alanya Oba Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Amed part of?
Alanyaspor vs Amed is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Amed?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 61% chance of winning, Amed a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Amed?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Alanyaspor and Amed will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Amed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Amed?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alanyaspor and Amed in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Amed (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (1.01) and Amed's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Amed's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
61%
1.65
21%
4.66
18%
5.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.91
0.95
Amed xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
5.60
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
14%
7.06
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
3%
39.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.2 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Amed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Amed expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 0.95 for Amed, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Amed?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 4 outings, Alanyaspor have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 2W 1D 1L record — D-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Amed's form line: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Amed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.75 PPG, Amed on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Amed are on 1.75 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Early Season
Amed
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Amed in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Amed have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
Have Alanyaspor or Amed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Amed in 25%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 50%, Amed 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Alanyaspor) and 75% (Amed).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Amed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Amed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 50% of Amed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Amed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 75% of Amed's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Amed tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Amed in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.