Adana Demirspor 1-3 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Samsunspor at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Samsunspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Samsunspor make the trip to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to face Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Adana Demirspor (all games): 0W 1D 9L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 3.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Adana Demirspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Adana Demirspor's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Yeni Adana Stadyumu this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Adana Demirspor are significantly better at Yeni Adana Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Samsunspor have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Samsunspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Samsunspor have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Samsunspor are 1.50 PPG clear of Adana Demirspor in recent Süper Lig fixtures (1.60 vs 0.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Adana Demirspor lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Samsunspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 62% versus Samsunspor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 60% | Samsunspor 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 0.89 xG and Samsunspor 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 0.778 / defence 1.469 | Samsunspor attack 1.002 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.313. Adana Demirspor's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Samsunspor's defence strength of 0.771 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 Adana Demirspor games / 45 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 15% | Draw 24% | Samsunspor 60%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 6.67 | Draw 4.17 | Samsunspor 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Samsunspor (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Samsunspor as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Adana Demirspor 60% | Samsunspor 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 15% | Draw 24% | Samsunspor 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 52% | xG Adana Demirspor 0.89 / Samsunspor 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 0.778 / def 1.469 | Samsunspor attack 1.002 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.93
Samsunspor xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Samsunspor kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Samsunspor?
Adana Demirspor 1 - 3 Samsunspor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Samsunspor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 15% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 60% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Samsunspor?
Record (2 meetings): Adana Demirspor 0W | Draws 1 | Samsunspor 1W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Samsunspor in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Samsunspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Adana Demirspor's attack rating (0.78) and Samsunspor's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (1.00x) against Adana Demirspor's defence (1.47x) — and the away total comes out at 1.93.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 0-2 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
15%
6.55
24%
4.10
60%
1.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
2.82
1.93
Samsunspor xG
6.55
15%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
1.66
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
14%
6.91
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
2%
45.28
25%
4.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 11.5 | 11.1 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.93 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Samsunspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Adana Demirspor come into this having played 45 games, going 10W 15D 20L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 1.29 PPG from 45 outings (16W 10D 19L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Samsunspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Adana Demirspor against 1.29 for Samsunspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Adana Demirspor's home form reads 9W 4D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Adana Demirspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 0.77 points per game from 22 outings (4W 5D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Samsunspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.18 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Early Season
Samsunspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 10W 15D 20L in their last 45 games (1.00 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 16W 10D 19L in their last 45 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Samsunspor away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 1.41 PPG; Samsunspor away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Samsunspor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Adana Demirspor have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Adana Demirspor
1
Draws
3
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Samsunspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 0, Samsunspor have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Samsunspor 3-2 Adana Demirspor.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Samsunspor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 54%, Samsunspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Adana Demirspor) and 41% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Samsunspor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Samsunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 50% of Samsunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Adana Demirspor's recent games and 41% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Adana Demirspor and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Samsunspor cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Adana Demirspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Adana Demirspor 1-3 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 0.89 xG and Samsunspor 1.93 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Samsunspor outscored their 1.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.78 / defence 1.47 against Samsunspor attack 1.00 / defence 0.77, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 15% | Draw 24% | Samsunspor 60%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 60%, Samsunspor 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Samsunspor's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Adana Demirspor 1.00 PPG, Samsunspor 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Samsunspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.