Adana Demirspor 1-2 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Adana Demirspor at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Rizespor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rizespor make the trip to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to face Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 August 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Adana Demirspor (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Adana Demirspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Adana Demirspor have posted 2W 3D 5L at Yeni Adana Stadyumu — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rizespor have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Rizespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Rizespor have posted 1W 0D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Adana Demirspor against 1.20 for Rizespor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Adana Demirspor, 1 for Rizespor and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2024, ended 0–1 with Rizespor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Adana Demirspor — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Rizespor — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 59% versus Rizespor 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 56% | Rizespor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.66 xG and Rizespor 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 1.001 / defence 1.295 | Rizespor attack 0.954 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.234. Data: 39 Adana Demirspor games / 39 Rizespor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 39% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 33%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Rizespor 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Adana Demirspor at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Adana Demirspor 60% | Rizespor 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 39% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.66 / Rizespor 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 1.001 / def 1.295 | Rizespor attack 0.954 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Rizespor xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Rizespor kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Rizespor?
Adana Demirspor 1 - 2 Rizespor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Rizespor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 39% chance of winning, Rizespor a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Rizespor?
Record (4 meetings): Adana Demirspor 3W | Draws 0 | Rizespor 1W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Rizespor in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Rizespor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Adana Demirspor's attack at 1.00x the league average against Rizespor's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (0.95x) against Adana Demirspor's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
39%
2.55
27%
3.66
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
3.18
1.52
Rizespor xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
9%
11.69
6%
15.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.5 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.52 for Rizespor, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, Adana Demirspor have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 10W 14D 15L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rizespor's form line: 14W 9D 16L from 39 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Rizespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Adana Demirspor against 1.31 for Rizespor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Adana Demirspor have posted 1.63 PPG from 19 outings (9W 4D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Adana Demirspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Rizespor have gone 3W 3D 13L from 19 away games — 0.63 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.26 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Early Season
Rizespor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 10W 14D 15L in their last 39 games (1.13 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 14W 9D 16L in their last 39 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Rizespor away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 1.63 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.63 PPG.
Have Adana Demirspor or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Adana Demirspor have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Rizespor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Rizespor have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Adana Demirspor have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Adana Demirspor
0
Draws
3
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Rizespor?
From 6 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 3, Rizespor have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Rizespor 3-2 Adana Demirspor.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 53%, Rizespor 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Adana Demirspor and 68% for Rizespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Rizespor in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Rizespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 53% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Adana Demirspor's matches and 68% of Rizespor's.
Do Adana Demirspor and Rizespor tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rizespor defy the odds to beat Adana Demirspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Adana Demirspor 1-2 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.66 xG and Rizespor 1.52 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 1.00 / defence 1.29 against Rizespor attack 0.95 / defence 1.20, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 39% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 33%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Rizespor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 56%, Rizespor 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Rizespor's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Adana Demirspor 1.13 PPG, Rizespor 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.