Adana Demirspor 3-0 Pendikspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Adana Demirspor at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Pendikspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yeni Adana Stadyumu plays host to Adana Demirspor versus Pendikspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Adana Demirspor have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Adana Demirspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana Demirspor have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pendikspor (all games): 0W 3D 1L across 4 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.75 points per game. Last five: L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Pendikspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.25 in Adana Demirspor's favour (2.00 vs 0.75) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Adana Demirspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Pendikspor in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Adana Demirspor half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
Pendikspor half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Adana Demirspor 100% and Pendikspor 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 75% | Pendikspor 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.71 xG and Pendikspor 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 1.325 / defence 1.016 | Pendikspor attack 0.793 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.338. Adana Demirspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.325 — their λ of 1.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 39 Adana Demirspor games / 4 Pendikspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 49% | Draw 31% | Pendikspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | Pendikspor 4.76. Adana Demirspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Adana Demirspor are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Adana Demirspor 60% | Pendikspor 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Pendikspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 49% | Draw 31% | Pendikspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.71 / Pendikspor 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 1.325 / def 1.016 | Pendikspor attack 0.793 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Pendikspor xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Pendikspor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Pendikspor kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Pendikspor?
Adana Demirspor 3 - 0 Pendikspor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Pendikspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Pendikspor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Pendikspor is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Pendikspor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 49% chance of winning, Pendikspor a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Pendikspor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Pendikspor will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Pendikspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Pendikspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Pendikspor in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Pendikspor (all comps): 0W-3D-1L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Adana Demirspor's attack at 1.32x the league average against Pendikspor's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pendikspor's attack (0.79x) against Adana Demirspor's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 39/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
49%
2.05
31%
3.26
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
2.79
1.08
Pendikspor xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
4%
26.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.3 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Pendikspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Pendikspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.08 for Pendikspor, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Pendikspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Adana Demirspor's recent record stands at 2W 2D 0L from 4 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pendikspor, meanwhile, have gone 0W 3D 1L across 4 games — 0.75 PPG, with L-D-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Pendikspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Adana Demirspor by 1.25 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pendikspor heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Adana Demirspor are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Pendikspor are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Pendikspor in 100%.
Last 4 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Early Season
Pendikspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Pendikspor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 2W 2D 0L in their last 4 games (2.00 PPG), while Pendikspor have gone 0W 3D 1L in their last 4 (0.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Adana Demirspor
0
Draws
1
Pendikspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Pendikspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 1, Pendikspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Pendikspor last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2024, when Pendikspor 2-1 Adana Demirspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pendikspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Adana Demirspor, 100% for Pendikspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Adana Demirspor) and 25% (Pendikspor).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Pendikspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Pendikspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Adana Demirspor's games and 100% of Pendikspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Pendikspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Adana Demirspor's recent games and 25% of Pendikspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Adana Demirspor and Pendikspor tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Pendikspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Adana Demirspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Pendikspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Pendikspor 3-0 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.71 xG and Pendikspor 1.08 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Adana Demirspor beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pendikspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 1.32 / defence 1.02 against Pendikspor attack 0.79 / defence 0.99, drawn from 39/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 49% | Draw 31% | Pendikspor 21%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 75%, Pendikspor 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Pendikspor's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Adana Demirspor arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points. Adana Demirspor scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Pendikspor managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.