Adana Demirspor 3-0 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Adana Demirspor at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Konyaspor make the trip to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to face Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 October 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Adana Demirspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Adana Demirspor's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at Yeni Adana Stadyumu this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Konyaspor (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Adana Demirspor's 2.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Konyaspor's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Adana Demirspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Konyaspor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Adana Demirspor, 1 for Konyaspor and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2023, ended 2–1 with Adana Demirspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Adana Demirspor half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 62% versus Konyaspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 64% | Konyaspor 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 2.11 xG and Konyaspor 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 1.458 / defence 0.836 | Konyaspor attack 1.002 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.189. Adana Demirspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.458 — their λ of 2.11 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 Adana Demirspor games / 45 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 61% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 15%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | Konyaspor 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Adana Demirspor (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Adana Demirspor at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Adana Demirspor 60% | Konyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 61% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 57% | xG Adana Demirspor 2.11 / Konyaspor 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 1.458 / def 0.836 | Konyaspor attack 1.002 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Konyaspor xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Konyaspor?
Adana Demirspor 3 - 0 Konyaspor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 61% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Konyaspor?
Record (4 meetings): Adana Demirspor 1W | Draws 2 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Konyaspor in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Adana Demirspor's attack rating (1.46) and Konyaspor's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 2.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (1.00x) against Adana Demirspor's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
61%
1.63
24%
4.26
15%
6.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
3.11
1.00
Konyaspor xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.26
24%
Draw
6.58
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
12%
8.28
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
2%
54.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.00 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Konyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Adana Demirspor's recent record stands at 25W 11D 9L from 45 games, a 1.91 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Konyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 14W 18D 13L across 45 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Adana Demirspor by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Konyaspor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Adana Demirspor have managed 16W 4D 2L from 22 games — 2.36 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.91 PPG overall — Adana Demirspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Konyaspor's away record stands at 8W 9D 5L across 22 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Adana Demirspor are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.29 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 25W 11D 9L in their last 45 games (1.91 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 14W 18D 13L in their last 45 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 2.36 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Adana Demirspor or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Adana Demirspor have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Konyaspor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Adana Demirspor won 3-0 on 28 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Adana Demirspor have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Adana Demirspor
3
Draws
3
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Konyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 2, Konyaspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when Konyaspor 3-1 Adana Demirspor.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 54%, Konyaspor 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Adana Demirspor and 59% for Konyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Konyaspor in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Konyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 54% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Adana Demirspor's matches and 59% of Konyaspor's.
Do Adana Demirspor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Adana Demirspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Konyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Konyaspor 3-0 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 2.11 xG and Konyaspor 1.00 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Adana Demirspor beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Konyaspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 1.46 / defence 0.84 against Konyaspor attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 61% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 15%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 64%, Konyaspor 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Konyaspor's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Adana Demirspor arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.