Adana Demirspor 0-4 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (67%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Adana Demirspor face Fenerbahçe.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yeni Adana Stadyumu plays host to Adana Demirspor versus Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig (matchday 20). Kick-off: Sunday 19 January 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Adana Demirspor's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Adana Demirspor's form when playing at home: 1W 0D 9L across their last 10 home games (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fenerbahçe (all games): 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 — 2.50 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Fenerbahçe have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Fenerbahçe arrive in superior form — a 1.80 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Adana Demirspor's last 10 home games and Fenerbahçe's last 10 away games) — Adana Demirspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Fenerbahçe in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Fenerbahçe have the stronger record — 4 wins to Adana Demirspor's 1, with 2 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Aug 2024, ended Adana Demirspor 0–1 Fenerbahçe — a Fenerbahçe win.
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
Adana Demirspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 59% versus Fenerbahçe 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 59% | Fenerbahçe 66%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Adana Demirspor surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Fenerbahçe have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 71% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.00 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 0.714 / defence 1.339 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.522 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.175. Adana Demirspor's attack rating of 0.714 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack rating of 1.522, which lifts their away xG to 2.40. Adana Demirspor's defence rating of 1.339 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Fenerbahçe's projected output up. Data: built from Adana Demirspor's last 56 games and Fenerbahçe's last 56.
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 12% | Draw 21% | Fenerbahçe 67%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 8.03 | Draw 4.76 | Fenerbahçe 1.50. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (67%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Adana Demirspor's last 10 home games and Fenerbahçe's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Adana Demirspor 60% (last 10 home games) | Fenerbahçe 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 20 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 19 January 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 12% | Draw 21% | Fenerbahçe 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Adana Demirspor 1.00 / Fenerbahçe 2.40 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 0.714 / def 1.339 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.522 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
2.40
Fenerbahçe xG
59%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe FAQs
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 19 January 2025 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Adana Demirspor 0 - 4 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 20) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 12% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 67% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Fenerbahçe will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Adana Demirspor's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Fenerbahçe's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.52x) against Adana Demirspor's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 2.40.
These ratings are built from Adana Demirspor's last 56 games and Fenerbahçe's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.6%. Close behind: 0-2 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
12%
8.03
21%
4.76
67%
1.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
3.40
2.40
Fenerbahçe xG
8.03
12%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
1.50
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
9%
10.97
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
1%
88.03
24%
4.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 2.40 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Adana Demirspor come into this having played 56 games, going 12W 16D 28L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 2.52 PPG from 56 outings (44W 9D 3L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.59 PPG clear of Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Adana Demirspor's home form reads 10W 4D 14L across their last 28 home games, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 2.46 points per game from their last 28 away games (21W 6D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.57 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Adana Demirspor (Home) vs Fenerbahçe (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe Form FAQs
What form are Adana Demirspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 12W 16D 28L in their last 56 games (0.93 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 44W 9D 3L in their last 56 (2.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 1.21 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.46 PPG.
Have Adana Demirspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Adana Demirspor have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 19 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Fenerbahçe have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won Adana Demirspor 0-4 Fenerbahçe on 19 Jan 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Adana Demirspor have gone 0W 2D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Adana Demirspor
2
Draws
5
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Fenerbahçe?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Adana Demirspor have won 1, Fenerbahçe have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 January 2025: Adana Demirspor 0-4 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 54%, Fenerbahçe 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Adana Demirspor) and 50% (Fenerbahçe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe in 50%; Adana Demirspor have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Fenerbahçe Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Adana Demirspor and Fenerbahçe matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 46% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Adana Demirspor and Fenerbahçe matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Adana Demirspor's matches and 50% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Adana Demirspor and Fenerbahçe matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 71% of Fenerbahçe's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Adana Demirspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Adana Demirspor 0-4 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.00 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.40 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Adana Demirspor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Fenerbahçe outscored their 2.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.71 / defence 1.34 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.52 / defence 0.87, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 12% | Draw 21% | Fenerbahçe 67%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 59%, Fenerbahçe 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.