Adana Demirspor 0-1 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eyüpspor at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Eyüpspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Eyüpspor travel to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to take on Adana Demirspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Adana Demirspor stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Adana Demirspor at Yeni Adana Stadyumu this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Eyüpspor — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eyüpspor's away record: 1W 3D 2L from 6 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Eyüpspor's 1.80 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Adana Demirspor's 0.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Adana Demirspor in-play tendencies (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Adana Demirspor 73% and Eyüpspor 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 73% | Eyüpspor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.38 xG and Eyüpspor 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 0.902 / defence 1.623 | Eyüpspor attack 0.857 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.325. Data: 48 Adana Demirspor games / 11 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 28% | Draw 25% | Eyüpspor 47%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Eyüpspor 2.13. Eyüpspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Eyüpspor as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Adana Demirspor 70% | Eyüpspor 83% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 28% | Draw 25% | Eyüpspor 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.38 / Eyüpspor 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 0.902 / def 1.623 | Eyüpspor attack 0.857 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Eyüpspor xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Eyüpspor?
Adana Demirspor 0 - 1 Eyüpspor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Eyüpspor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 28% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Eyüpspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Eyüpspor in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Eyüpspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Adana Demirspor vs Eyüpspor?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Adana Demirspor's attack at 0.90x the league average against Eyüpspor's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Adana Demirspor's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
28%
3.61
25%
4.01
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
3.22
1.84
Eyüpspor xG
3.61
28%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
16%
6.31
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
4%
22.80
12%
8.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.84 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 11 outings, Adana Demirspor have picked up 0.18 PPG on a 0W 2D 9L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eyüpspor's form line: 5W 4D 2L from 11 games, 1.73 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Eyüpspor are the form team by 1.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Adana Demirspor.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Adana Demirspor have posted 0.00 PPG from 6 outings (0W 0D 6L).
On the road, Eyüpspor have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Eyüpspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eyüpspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.73 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.55 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Eyüpspor in 64%.
Defensively: Eyüpspor in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 0W 2D 9L in their last 11 games (0.18 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 5W 4D 2L in their last 11 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Eyüpspor away?
Eyüpspor's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 0.00 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Adana Demirspor or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Adana Demirspor have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Adana Demirspor and Eyüpspor runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Adana Demirspor
0
Draws
2
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Eyüpspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 0, Eyüpspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2025, when Eyüpspor 6-0 Adana Demirspor.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Eyüpspor?
Eyüpspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Adana Demirspor at 83%, Eyüpspor at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Adana Demirspor and 50% for Eyüpspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Eyüpspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Adana Demirspor's games and 83% of Eyüpspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Adana Demirspor's matches and 50% of Eyüpspor's.
Do Adana Demirspor and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Eyüpspor edge out Adana Demirspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor beat Adana Demirspor 0-1 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.38 xG and Eyüpspor 1.84 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Adana Demirspor fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Eyüpspor landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.90 / defence 1.62 against Eyüpspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.03, drawn from 48/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 28% | Draw 25% | Eyüpspor 47%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 73%, Eyüpspor 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Eyüpspor arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.67 average — tighter than their form line. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.