Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kasımpaşa make the trip to Papara Park to face Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 January 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Trabzonspor have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Trabzonspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Trabzonspor at Papara Park this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at Papara Park than their overall form suggests.
Kasımpaşa's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Trabzonspor, 1.60 for Kasımpaşa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Trabzonspor register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Kasımpaşa in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Trabzonspor lead 4W to 2W over the last 10 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trabzonspor 70% and Kasımpaşa 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 57% | Kasımpaşa 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.44 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.069 / defence 0.994 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.971 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.218. Data: 37 Trabzonspor games / 37 Kasımpaşa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 43% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 31%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Kasımpaşa 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 80% | Kasımpaşa 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Jan 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 43% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Trabzonspor 1.44 / Kasımpaşa 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.069 / def 0.994 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.971 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Kasımpaşa xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 24 January 2027 at Papara Park.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 43% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (10 meetings): Trabzonspor 4W | Draws 4 | Kasımpaşa 2W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Kasımpaşa's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Kasımpaşa's attack (0.97x) against Trabzonspor's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
43%
2.32
26%
3.84
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.61
1.18
Kasımpaşa xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
7%
13.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.4 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.18 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trabzonspor's recent record stands at 21W 10D 6L from 37 games, a 1.97 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Trabzonspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kasımpaşa, meanwhile, have gone 9W 13D 15L across 37 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-W-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trabzonspor by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kasımpaşa heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Trabzonspor have managed 10W 6D 2L from 18 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kasımpaşa's away record stands at 4W 6D 8L across 18 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 0.97 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Early Season
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 21W 10D 6L in their last 37 games (1.97 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 9W 13D 15L in their last 37 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.00 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since February 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won 1-5 on 1 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trabzonspor have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Trabzonspor
4
Draws
2
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 4, Kasımpaşa have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Kasımpaşa 1-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 67%, Kasımpaşa 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Trabzonspor) and 56% (Kasımpaşa).
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Trabzonspor's games and 61% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 56% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.