Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 63% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kasımpaşa make the trip to Papara Park to face Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 January 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Trabzonspor have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor at Papara Park this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Papara Park.
Kasımpaşa's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Trabzonspor's favour (2.20 vs 1.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Trabzonspor lead 4W to 2W over the last 10 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 61% versus Kasımpaşa 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 57% | Kasımpaşa 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.94 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.415 / defence 0.713 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.972 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.237. Trabzonspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.415 — their λ of 1.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Trabzonspor's defence rating of 0.713 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Trabzonspor games / 43 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 63% | Draw 21% | Kasımpaşa 16%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Kasımpaşa 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Trabzonspor 40% | Kasımpaşa 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Jan 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 63% | Draw 21% | Kasımpaşa 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 49% | xG Trabzonspor 1.94 / Kasımpaşa 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.415 / def 0.713 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.972 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Kasımpaşa xG
49%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 24 January 2027 at Papara Park.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 63% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (10 meetings): Trabzonspor 4W | Draws 4 | Kasımpaşa 2W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (1.42x league average) is weighed against Kasımpaşa's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. Flip it around — Kasımpaşa's attack (0.97x) against Trabzonspor's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
63%
1.59
21%
4.70
16%
6.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.80
0.86
Kasımpaşa xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
6.30
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
14%
6.99
Win to Nil
27%
3.75
2%
44.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 10.1 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.86 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trabzonspor's recent record stands at 27W 10D 7L from 44 games, a 2.07 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kasımpaşa, meanwhile, have gone 12W 16D 16L across 44 games — 1.18 PPG, with D-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trabzonspor by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kasımpaşa heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Trabzonspor have managed 14W 6D 2L from 22 games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kasımpaşa's away record stands at 6W 6D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.09 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 27W 10D 7L in their last 44 games (2.07 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 12W 16D 16L in their last 44 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.18 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since February 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won 1-5 on 1 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trabzonspor have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Trabzonspor
4
Draws
2
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 4, Kasımpaşa have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Kasımpaşa 1-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 54%, Kasımpaşa 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Trabzonspor) and 59% (Kasımpaşa).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Trabzonspor's games and 64% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 59% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.