Samsunspor vs Konyaspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Samsunspor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Konyaspor make the trip to Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu to face Samsunspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Samsunspor (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Samsunspor's home record at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Samsunspor are significantly better at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Konyaspor have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Konyaspor have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.40 for Samsunspor, 0.80 for Konyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Samsunspor lead 2W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Samsunspor — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 59% versus Konyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 57% | Konyaspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.13 xG and Konyaspor 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.810 / defence 1.426 | Konyaspor attack 0.767 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.237. Data: 43 Samsunspor games / 44 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 31% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 42%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Konyaspor 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 70% | Konyaspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 31% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Samsunspor 1.13 / Konyaspor 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.810 / def 1.426 | Konyaspor attack 0.767 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Konyaspor xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Konyaspor is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
Where is Samsunspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Samsunspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 31% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Samsunspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Konyaspor?
Record (6 meetings): Samsunspor 2W | Draws 2 | Konyaspor 2W.
What form are Samsunspor and Konyaspor in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Samsunspor's attack at 0.81x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (0.77x) against Samsunspor's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
31%
3.20
27%
3.72
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.49
1.35
Konyaspor xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
8%
12.39
13%
7.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.3 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.35 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 44 outings, Samsunspor have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 14W 13D 17L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Konyaspor's form line: 12W 12D 20L from 44 games, 1.09 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Samsunspor against 1.09 for Konyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Samsunspor have posted 1.24 PPG from 21 outings (6W 8D 7L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 4W 5D 12L from 21 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Samsunspor are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.11 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 14W 13D 17L in their last 44 games (1.25 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 12W 12D 20L in their last 44 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.24 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 3-0 on 12 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Samsunspor have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Samsunspor
2
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Konyaspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 2, Konyaspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Samsunspor 2-2 Konyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 52%, Konyaspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Samsunspor) and 57% (Konyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Samsunspor have failed to score in 38% of games; Konyaspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Samsunspor's games and 67% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Samsunspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Samsunspor's matches and 57% of Konyaspor's.
Do Samsunspor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.