Rizespor vs Konyaspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Rizespor (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rizespor face Konyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Konyaspor make the trip to to face Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 January 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Rizespor (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Rizespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rizespor's home record at : 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Konyaspor have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Konyaspor away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Rizespor's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Konyaspor's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Rizespor, 2 for Konyaspor and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2026, ended 1–0 with Rizespor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Rizespor — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 54% versus Konyaspor 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 57% | Konyaspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.69 xG and Konyaspor 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.926 / defence 1.089 | Konyaspor attack 1.087 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.243. Konyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Rizespor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Rizespor games / 37 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 43% | Draw 23% | Konyaspor 34%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | Konyaspor 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rizespor are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 50% | Konyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Jan 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 43% | Draw 23% | Konyaspor 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Rizespor 1.69 / Konyaspor 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.926 / def 1.089 | Konyaspor attack 1.087 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Konyaspor xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Konyaspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 24 January 2027.
What competition is Rizespor vs Konyaspor part of?
Rizespor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 43% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Rizespor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Konyaspor?
Record (9 meetings): Rizespor 4W | Draws 3 | Konyaspor 2W.
What form are Rizespor and Konyaspor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.93x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (1.09x) against Rizespor's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
43%
2.32
23%
4.27
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Rizespor xG
Total xG
3.17
1.47
Konyaspor xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
10%
10.12
6%
16.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.5 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.47 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rizespor come into this having played 37 games, going 12W 11D 14L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Rizespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.00 PPG from 37 outings (9W 10D 18L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Rizespor against 1.00 for Konyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rizespor's home form reads 8W 3D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 0.72 points per game from 18 outings (3W 4D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rizespor are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.14 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor in 62%.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Early Season
Konyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 12W 11D 14L in their last 37 games (1.27 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 9W 10D 18L in their last 37 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Konyaspor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.50 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Rizespor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 3-0 on 21 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Rizespor
3
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Konyaspor?
From 9 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 4, Konyaspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Konyaspor 0-1 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Konyaspor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 44%, Konyaspor 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Rizespor) and 61% (Konyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Rizespor have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Rizespor's games and 72% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rizespor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Rizespor's matches and 61% of Konyaspor's.
Do Rizespor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.