Rizespor vs Eyüpspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Rizespor (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rizespor face Eyüpspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rizespor host Eyüpspor at in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at , Rizespor have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Rizespor are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Eyüpspor — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Eyüpspor have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.
Rizespor are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Rizespor have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 5 past contests while Eyüpspor have managed just 1 wins.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2026, ended 2–0 with Rizespor winning.
The historical record gives Rizespor a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Rizespor in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 52% versus Eyüpspor 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 57% | Eyüpspor 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 2.05 xG and Eyüpspor 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.896 / defence 1.461 | Eyüpspor attack 0.636 / defence 1.490. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.237. Eyüpspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.490 — this is suppressing Rizespor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Rizespor games / 43 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 58% | Draw 21% | Eyüpspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | Eyüpspor 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Rizespor (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.05 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rizespor as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rizespor 50% | Eyüpspor 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 58% | Draw 21% | Eyüpspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 60% | xG Rizespor 2.05 / Eyüpspor 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.896 / def 1.461 | Eyüpspor attack 0.636 / def 1.490 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Eyüpspor xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Eyüpspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 21 February 2027.
What competition is Rizespor vs Eyüpspor part of?
Rizespor vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 58% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 21% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Rizespor and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Eyüpspor?
Record (5 meetings): Rizespor 4W | Draws 0 | Eyüpspor 1W.
What form are Rizespor and Eyüpspor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Eyüpspor (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rizespor's attack rating (0.90) and Eyüpspor's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 2.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
58%
1.72
21%
4.75
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Rizespor xG
Total xG
3.20
1.15
Eyüpspor xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
13%
7.78
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
3%
37.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.15 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Eyüpspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rizespor come into this having played 44 games, going 13W 13D 18L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Eyüpspor sit at 0.82 PPG from 44 outings (9W 9D 26L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rizespor on 1.18 PPG, Eyüpspor on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Rizespor's home form reads 8W 3D 10L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Eyüpspor have taken 0.67 points per game from 21 outings (3W 5D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rizespor are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 0.82 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 13W 13D 18L in their last 44 games (1.18 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 9W 9D 26L in their last 44 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Eyüpspor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.29 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rizespor and Eyüpspor runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2026, when Eyüpspor won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rizespor's record when hosting Eyüpspor specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Rizespor
0
Draws
1
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Eyüpspor?
From 5 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 4, Eyüpspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Eyüpspor 0-2 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Eyüpspor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 43%, Eyüpspor 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Rizespor) and 48% (Eyüpspor).
On the defensive side: Rizespor have failed to score in 33% of games; Eyüpspor in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Eyüpspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Rizespor's recent matches and 38% of Eyüpspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Rizespor's recent games and 48% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.