Rizespor vs Başakşehir – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Başakşehir travel to to take on Rizespor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 December 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Rizespor are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Başakşehir — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rizespor 1.10 PPG, Başakşehir 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Başakşehir have the better historical record — 4 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for Rizespor.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Başakşehir have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Rizespor in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 52% versus Başakşehir 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 57% | Başakşehir 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.44 xG and Başakşehir 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.872 / defence 1.444 | Başakşehir attack 0.721 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Data: 44 Rizespor games / 44 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 40% | Draw 26% | Başakşehir 34%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Başakşehir 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rizespor at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rizespor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Rizespor 50% | Başakşehir 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Dec 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 40% | Draw 26% | Başakşehir 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Rizespor 1.44 / Başakşehir 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.872 / def 1.444 | Başakşehir attack 0.721 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Başakşehir xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Rizespor vs Başakşehir is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Sunday 13 December 2026.
What competition is Rizespor vs Başakşehir part of?
Rizespor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 40% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Rizespor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Başakşehir?
Record (8 meetings): Rizespor 1W | Draws 3 | Başakşehir 4W.
What form are Rizespor and Başakşehir in?
Rizespor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Başakşehir (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.87x the league average against Başakşehir's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
40%
2.48
26%
3.92
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.74
1.30
Başakşehir xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
11%
9.13
8%
12.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.30 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rizespor's recent record stands at 13W 13D 18L from 44 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir, meanwhile, have gone 20W 11D 13L across 44 games — 1.61 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Başakşehir by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rizespor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rizespor have managed 8W 3D 10L from 21 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Başakşehir's away record stands at 8W 4D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Rizespor are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.70 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 13W 13D 18L in their last 44 games (1.18 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 20W 11D 13L in their last 44 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Başakşehir away?
Başakşehir's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.29 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rizespor and Başakşehir runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2021, when Başakşehir won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rizespor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Rizespor
3
Draws
4
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Başakşehir?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 1, Başakşehir have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Başakşehir 2-2 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Başakşehir see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 43%, Başakşehir 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Rizespor) and 62% (Başakşehir). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir in 33%; Rizespor have failed to score in 33% of games; Başakşehir in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Rizespor's recent matches and 48% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Rizespor's matches and 62% of Başakşehir's.
Do Rizespor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.