Rizespor vs Amed – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Amed at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs Amed encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Amed make the trip to to face Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 April 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rizespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Rizespor are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Amed (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Amed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amed's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 1L across 4 road games this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.25 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Amed arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Rizespor — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Amed — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 40% versus Amed 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rizespor 50% | Amed 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.63 xG and Amed 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.896 / defence 1.461 | Amed attack 1.014 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.237. Data: 44 Rizespor games / 9 Amed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 35% | Draw 22% | Amed 43%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.86 | Draw 4.55 | Amed 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Amed at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amed if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.46 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 50% | Amed 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Amed | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Apr 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 35% | Draw 22% | Amed 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Rizespor 1.63 / Amed 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.896 / def 1.461 | Amed attack 1.014 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Amed (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Amed xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Amed kick off?
Rizespor vs Amed is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 18 April 2027.
What competition is Rizespor vs Amed part of?
Rizespor vs Amed is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Amed?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 35% chance of winning, Amed a 43% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Amed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Amed?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Rizespor and Amed will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Amed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Amed?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rizespor and Amed in?
Rizespor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Amed (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.90x the league average against Amed's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Amed's attack (1.01x) against Rizespor's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from 44/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Amed Win
35%
2.88
22%
4.49
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Rizespor xG
Total xG
3.46
1.83
Amed xG
2.88
35%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.09
Clean Sheet
16%
6.25
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
6%
17.97
8%
11.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Amed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Amed expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.83 for Amed, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Amed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rizespor come into this having played 10 games, going 3W 2D 5L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Amed sit at 2.30 PPG from 10 outings (7W 2D 1L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Amed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Amed carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.20 PPG clear of Rizespor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Rizespor's home form reads 0W 0D 4L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.00 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.10 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Amed have taken 1.25 points per game from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L). That's a step down from their 2.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Amed's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amed come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rizespor are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Amed are on 2.50 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Amed in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Amed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Amed in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 games (1.10 PPG), while Amed have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Amed away?
Amed's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 0.00 PPG; Amed away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Amed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Amed in 30%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 25%, Amed 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Rizespor and 75% for Amed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rizespor have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Amed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Amed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Rizespor's recent matches and 75% of Amed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Amed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Rizespor's matches and 75% of Amed's.
Do Rizespor and Amed tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Amed in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.