Rizespor vs Amed – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Amed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Amed make the trip to to face Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 April 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rizespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Rizespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rizespor's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Amed (all games): 2W 0D 1L across 3 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Amed have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Rizespor — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Amed — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Rizespor 33% | Amed 33%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 33% | Amed 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.64 xG and Amed 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.927 / defence 1.097 | Amed attack 0.717 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.218. Amed bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Rizespor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Rizespor games / 3 Amed games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Rizespor 53% | Draw 25% | Amed 22%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Amed 4.55. Rizespor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rizespor at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 50% | Amed 33% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Amed | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Apr 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 53% | Draw 25% | Amed 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Rizespor 1.64 / Amed 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.927 / def 1.097 | Amed attack 0.717 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Amed xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Amed kick off?
Rizespor vs Amed is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 18 April 2027.
What competition is Rizespor vs Amed part of?
Rizespor vs Amed is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Amed?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 53% chance of winning, Amed a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Amed?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Rizespor and Amed will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Amed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Amed?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rizespor and Amed in?
Rizespor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Amed (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.93x the league average against Amed's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Amed's attack (0.72x) against Rizespor's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
The sample (37/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
53%
1.87
25%
4.07
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.60
0.96
Amed xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
20%
4.88
4%
23.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.7 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Amed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Amed expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Rizespor and 0.96 for Amed, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Amed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rizespor come into this having played 3 games, going 2W 0D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Rizespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Amed sit at 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Amed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Rizespor against 2.00 for Amed. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rizespor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Amed are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Early Season
Amed
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Amed in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Amed have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Rizespor or Amed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Amed in 33%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Rizespor) and 33% (Amed) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Rizespor) and 67% (Amed).
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Amed in 33%; Rizespor have failed to score in 33% of games; Amed in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Amed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Amed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Rizespor's recent matches and 33% of Amed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Amed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Rizespor's recent games and 67% of Amed's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Amed tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Amed in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.