Çorum FK vs Beşiktaş – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Çorum FK vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Çorum FK and Beşiktaş meet at Corum Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Çorum FK (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Çorum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Çorum FK's home record at Corum Stadyumu: 2W 0D 2L from 4 Süper Lig appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Beşiktaş's overall Süper Lig record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Çorum FK, 1 for Beşiktaş and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 8.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2026, ended 2–6 with Beşiktaş winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 8.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Çorum FK half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Beşiktaş half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Çorum FK 60% versus Beşiktaş 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Çorum FK 80% | Beşiktaş 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Çorum FK 1.36 xG and Beşiktaş 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Çorum FK attack 0.895 / defence 1.082 | Beşiktaş attack 1.066 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Data: 10 Çorum FK games / 44 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Çorum FK 36% | Draw 25% | Beşiktaş 39%. Fair-value odds: Çorum FK 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Beşiktaş 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Çorum FK 50% | Beşiktaş 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Çorum FK vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Corum Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Çorum FK 36% | Draw 25% | Beşiktaş 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Çorum FK 1.36 / Beşiktaş 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Çorum FK attack 0.895 / def 1.082 | Beşiktaş attack 1.066 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Çorum FK xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Beşiktaş xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Çorum FK vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Çorum FK vs Beşiktaş is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 7 February 2027 at Corum Stadyumu.
Where is Çorum FK vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Corum Stadyumu.
What competition is Çorum FK vs Beşiktaş part of?
Çorum FK vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Çorum FK vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Çorum FK a 36% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Çorum FK vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Çorum FK and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Çorum FK vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Çorum FK and Beşiktaş?
Record (1 meetings): Çorum FK 0W | Draws 0 | Beşiktaş 1W.
What form are Çorum FK and Beşiktaş in?
Çorum FK (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Beşiktaş (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Çorum FK's attack rating (0.90) and Beşiktaş's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (1.07x) against Çorum FK's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 10/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
36%
2.82
25%
3.97
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Çorum FK xG
Total xG
2.81
1.45
Beşiktaş xG
2.82
36%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
8%
11.94
10%
9.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.9 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Çorum FK vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Çorum FK and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Çorum FK and 1.45 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Çorum FK vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, Çorum FK have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 5W 1D 4L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Çorum FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş's form line: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games, 1.90 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Çorum FK against 1.90 for Beşiktaş. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Çorum FK have posted 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L).
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beşiktaş's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Çorum FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Çorum FK are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 2.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Çorum FK have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Çorum FK
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Çorum FK and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Çorum FK have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 games (1.60 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Çorum FK at home or Beşiktaş away?
Çorum FK's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Çorum FK at home: 1.50 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Çorum FK or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Çorum FK have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Çorum FK
0
Draws
1
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Çorum FK and Beşiktaş?
From 1 meetings on record, Çorum FK have won 0, Beşiktaş have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Çorum FK and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Beşiktaş 6-2 Çorum FK.
Who has won more matches between Çorum FK and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Çorum FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Çorum FK 50%, Beşiktaş 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Çorum FK and 75% for Beşiktaş. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Çorum FK home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Çorum FK play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Çorum FK's games and 75% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Çorum FK vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Çorum FK's matches and 75% of Beşiktaş's.
Do Çorum FK and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Çorum FK have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.