Çorum FK vs Amed – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Çorum FK at 45%, yet in-form Amed provide a compelling counter-argument — this Çorum FK vs Amed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Çorum FK and Amed meet at Corum Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Friday 11 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Çorum FK have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Çorum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Çorum FK at Corum Stadyumu this season: 2W 0D 2L from 4 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Amed's overall Süper Lig record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Amed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Amed have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.25 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Amed arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Çorum FK half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Amed half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Çorum FK 60% and Amed 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Çorum FK 80% | Amed 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Çorum FK 1.67 xG and Amed 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Çorum FK attack 0.895 / defence 1.082 | Amed attack 1.003 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Data: 10 Çorum FK games / 10 Amed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Çorum FK 45% | Draw 24% | Amed 31%. Fair-value odds: Çorum FK 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Amed 3.23. Çorum FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Çorum FK at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Amed (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Çorum FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Çorum FK 50% | Amed 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Çorum FK vs Amed | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Corum Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 11 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Çorum FK 45% | Draw 24% | Amed 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Çorum FK 1.67 / Amed 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Çorum FK attack 0.895 / def 1.082 | Amed attack 1.003 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Çorum FK (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Çorum FK xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Amed xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Çorum FK vs Amed kick off?
Çorum FK vs Amed is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Friday 11 December 2026 at Corum Stadyumu.
Where is Çorum FK vs Amed being played?
The match is being played at Corum Stadyumu.
What competition is Çorum FK vs Amed part of?
Çorum FK vs Amed is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Çorum FK vs Amed?
Our statistical model gives Çorum FK a 45% chance of winning, Amed a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Çorum FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Çorum FK vs Amed?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Çorum FK and Amed will score (BTTS).
Will Çorum FK vs Amed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Çorum FK and Amed?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Çorum FK and Amed in?
Çorum FK (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Amed (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Çorum FK's attack rating (0.90) and Amed's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Amed's attack (1.00x) against Çorum FK's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Çorum FK Win
45%
2.23
24%
4.19
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Çorum FK xG
Total xG
3.03
1.36
Amed xG
2.23
45%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
11%
8.70
6%
16.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.0 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Çorum FK vs Amed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Çorum FK and Amed expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Çorum FK and 1.36 for Amed, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Çorum FK vs Amed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Çorum FK come into this having played 10 games, going 5W 1D 4L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Çorum FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Amed sit at 2.30 PPG from 10 outings (7W 2D 1L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Amed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Amed carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Çorum FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Çorum FK's home form reads 2W 0D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Amed have taken 1.25 points per game from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L). That's a step down from their 2.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Amed's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Çorum FK are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Amed are on 2.50 scored and 1.10 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Çorum FK have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Amed in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Çorum FK
Blended
Amed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Çorum FK and Amed in coming into this match?
Çorum FK have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 games (1.60 PPG), while Amed have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Çorum FK at home or Amed away?
Çorum FK's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Çorum FK at home: 1.50 PPG; Amed away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Çorum FK or Amed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Çorum FK have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Amed in 30%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Çorum FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Çorum FK 50%, Amed 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Çorum FK and 75% for Amed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Çorum FK home games / Amed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Çorum FK play Amed?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Çorum FK's games and 75% of Amed's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Çorum FK vs Amed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Çorum FK's matches and 75% of Amed's.
Do Çorum FK and Amed tend to score early?
Çorum FK have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Amed in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.