Konyaspor vs Samsunspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium plays host to Konyaspor versus Samsunspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 11 April 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Konyaspor have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Konyaspor have posted 5W 1D 4L at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Samsunspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Samsunspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Konyaspor 2W, Samsunspor 2W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Samsunspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 54% versus Samsunspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 50% | Samsunspor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.23 xG and Samsunspor 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.693 / defence 0.996 | Samsunspor attack 0.847 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.237. Konyaspor's attack strength of 0.693 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Konyaspor games / 43 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 40% | Draw 28% | Samsunspor 31%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Samsunspor 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 20% | Samsunspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Apr 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 40% | Draw 28% | Samsunspor 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Konyaspor 1.23 / Samsunspor 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.693 / def 0.996 | Samsunspor attack 0.847 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Samsunspor xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Samsunspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 11 April 2027 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
Where is Konyaspor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Samsunspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 40% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Konyaspor and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Samsunspor?
Record (6 meetings): Konyaspor 2W | Draws 2 | Samsunspor 2W.
What form are Konyaspor and Samsunspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Samsunspor (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.69) and Samsunspor's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (0.85x) against Konyaspor's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
40%
2.47
28%
3.52
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.28
1.04
Samsunspor xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
9%
11.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.7 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.04 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Konyaspor come into this having played 44 games, going 12W 12D 20L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 1.25 PPG from 44 outings (14W 13D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.25 for Samsunspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Konyaspor's home form reads 7W 7D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 1.18 points per game from 22 outings (7W 5D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Konyaspor are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.27 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 12W 12D 20L in their last 44 games (1.09 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 14W 13D 17L in their last 44 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Samsunspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.27 PPG; Samsunspor away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 3-0 on 12 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Konyaspor
2
Draws
2
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Samsunspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 2, Samsunspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Samsunspor 2-2 Konyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 46%, Samsunspor 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Konyaspor) and 54% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Konyaspor have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Samsunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 64% of Samsunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Konyaspor's recent games and 54% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.