Konyaspor vs Göztepe – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Göztepe at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Göztepe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Göztepe travel to Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium to take on Konyaspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 May 2027, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Konyaspor — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Konyaspor have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Göztepe stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Göztepe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Göztepe's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Konyaspor 1.00 PPG, Göztepe 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Konyaspor, 1 for Göztepe and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Konyaspor in-play tendencies (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Göztepe in-play tendencies (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 65% versus Göztepe 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 57% | Göztepe 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.47 xG and Göztepe 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.818 / defence 1.053 | Göztepe attack 1.179 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.218. Göztepe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.228 — this is suppressing Konyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Konyaspor games / 37 Göztepe games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 37% | Draw 24% | Göztepe 39%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Göztepe 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Göztepe are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Göztepe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 40% | Göztepe 60%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 37% | Draw 24% | Göztepe 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Konyaspor 1.47 / Göztepe 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.818 / def 1.053 | Göztepe attack 1.179 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Göztepe xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Göztepe kick off?
Konyaspor vs Göztepe is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 9 May 2027 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
Where is Konyaspor vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Göztepe part of?
Konyaspor vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 37% chance of winning, Göztepe a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Konyaspor and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Göztepe?
Record (6 meetings): Konyaspor 3W | Draws 2 | Göztepe 1W.
What form are Konyaspor and Göztepe in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Göztepe (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Konyaspor's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Göztepe's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Göztepe's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
37%
2.71
24%
4.10
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.98
1.51
Göztepe xG
2.71
37%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
8%
12.30
9%
11.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.3 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.51 for Göztepe, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Konyaspor come into this having played 37 games, going 10W 10D 17L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Göztepe sit at 1.51 PPG from 37 outings (14W 14D 9L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Göztepe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Göztepe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Konyaspor's home form reads 6W 6D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Göztepe have taken 1.32 points per game from 19 outings (6W 7D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Konyaspor are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.27 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Göztepe in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Early Season
Göztepe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 10W 10D 17L in their last 37 games (1.08 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 14W 14D 9L in their last 37 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Göztepe away?
Göztepe's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.26 PPG; Göztepe away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Göztepe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Göztepe in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2022, when Konyaspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Konyaspor's record when hosting Göztepe specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Konyaspor
2
Draws
1
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Göztepe?
From 6 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 3, Göztepe have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Konyaspor 0-0 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Göztepe?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 53%, Göztepe 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Konyaspor) and 42% (Göztepe).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Göztepe in 37%; Konyaspor have failed to score in 26% of games; Göztepe in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Göztepe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 47% of Göztepe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Konyaspor's recent games and 42% of Göztepe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Göztepe tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.