Konyaspor vs Amed – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 49%, yet in-form Amed provide a compelling counter-argument — this Konyaspor vs Amed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium plays host to Konyaspor versus Amed in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 14 March 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Konyaspor have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Konyaspor have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Amed's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Amed have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Amed are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Amed goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 67% versus Amed 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Konyaspor 67% | Amed 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.45 xG and Amed 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.817 / defence 1.053 | Amed attack 0.717 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.218. Amed bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Konyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Konyaspor games / 3 Amed games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 49% | Draw 27% | Amed 24%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Amed 4.17. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Konyaspor as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Amed (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 40% | Amed 33% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Amed | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Mar 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 49% | Draw 27% | Amed 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Konyaspor 1.45 / Amed 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.817 / def 1.053 | Amed attack 0.717 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Amed xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Amed kick off?
Konyaspor vs Amed is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 14 March 2027 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
Where is Konyaspor vs Amed being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Amed part of?
Konyaspor vs Amed is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Amed?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 49% chance of winning, Amed a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Amed?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Konyaspor and Amed will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Amed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Amed?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Konyaspor and Amed in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Amed (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Konyaspor's attack at 0.82x the league average against Amed's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Amed's attack (0.72x) against Konyaspor's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
The sample (37/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.75
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.37
0.92
Amed xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
6%
17.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.5 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Amed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Amed expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.92 for Amed, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Amed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 3 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 3L record — L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Amed's form line: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Amed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Amed are the form team by 2.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Konyaspor.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Konyaspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Amed are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Early Season
Amed
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Amed in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 games (0.00 PPG), while Amed have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Konyaspor or Amed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Amed in 33%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 67%, Amed 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Konyaspor and 67% for Amed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Amed in 33%; Konyaspor have failed to score in 33% of games; Amed in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Amed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Amed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 33% of Amed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Amed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Konyaspor's matches and 67% of Amed's.
Do Konyaspor and Amed tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Amed in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.