Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Konyaspor travel to to take on Kasımpaşa. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kasımpaşa — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at . At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Konyaspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Kasımpaşa have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Konyaspor have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 10 encounters against Kasımpaşa's 0 victories.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Konyaspor have won 4 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Kasımpaşa trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games).
Konyaspor trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 54% versus Konyaspor 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 40% | Konyaspor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.64 xG and Konyaspor 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.899 / defence 0.899 | Konyaspor attack 1.096 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.218. Konyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.250 — this is suppressing Kasımpaşa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Kasımpaşa games / 37 Konyaspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 48% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Konyaspor 3.57. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Konyaspor lead the H2H ledger, but Kasımpaşa carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 30% | Konyaspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: • Kick-off: Friday 18 Sep 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 48% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.64 / Konyaspor 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.899 / def 0.899 | Konyaspor attack 1.096 / def 1.250 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Konyaspor xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Friday 18 September 2026.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 48% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor?
Record (10 meetings): Kasımpaşa 0W | Draws 6 | Konyaspor 4W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 0.90x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
48%
2.10
24%
4.10
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.84
1.20
Konyaspor xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
5%
18.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.5 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.20 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 37 games, going 9W 13D 15L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.08 PPG from 37 outings (10W 10D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.08 PPG, Konyaspor on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 5W 7D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 0.89 points per game from 18 outings (4W 4D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.24 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor in 65%.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
Konyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 9W 13D 15L in their last 37 games (1.08 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 10W 10D 17L in their last 37 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Konyaspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.22 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Kasımpaşa
6
Draws
4
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 0, Konyaspor have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Konyaspor 1-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 44%, Konyaspor 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Kasımpaşa) and 67% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Kasımpaşa have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Kasımpaşa's games and 78% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 67% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.