Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Trabzonspor (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Eyüpspor face Trabzonspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor meet at in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 April 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Eyüpspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 0D 9L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Eyüpspor have posted 3W 0D 7L at — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Eyüpspor are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Trabzonspor (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Trabzonspor arrive in superior form — a 1.90 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Trabzonspor hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Trabzonspor winning.
It is worth noting that Trabzonspor have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Eyüpspor half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Trabzonspor half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 39% versus Trabzonspor 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 48% | Trabzonspor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.00 xG and Trabzonspor 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.649 / defence 1.175 | Trabzonspor attack 1.234 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.237. Eyüpspor's attack strength of 0.649 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Trabzonspor have an above-average attack strength of 1.234 — the away xG of 1.79 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Eyüpspor games / 43 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 21% | Draw 23% | Trabzonspor 56%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 4.76 | Draw 4.35 | Trabzonspor 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Eyüpspor 20% | Trabzonspor 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Apr 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 21% | Draw 23% | Trabzonspor 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Eyüpspor 1.00 / Trabzonspor 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.649 / def 1.175 | Trabzonspor attack 1.234 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Trabzonspor xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 18 April 2027.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 21% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 56% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor?
Record (4 meetings): Eyüpspor 0W | Draws 1 | Trabzonspor 3W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Eyüpspor's attack rating (0.65) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (1.23x) against Eyüpspor's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.79.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 0-2 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
21%
4.79
23%
4.33
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.79
1.79
Trabzonspor xG
4.79
21%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
17%
6.01
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
3%
28.81
21%
4.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.79 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 44 outings, Eyüpspor have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 9W 9D 26L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor's form line: 27W 10D 7L from 44 games, 2.07 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 1.25 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Eyüpspor.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Eyüpspor have posted 1.00 PPG from 22 outings (6W 4D 12L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 13W 4D 5L from 22 away games — 1.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Eyüpspor are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.93 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor in 61%.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 9W 9D 26L in their last 44 games (0.82 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 27W 10D 7L in their last 44 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.00 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.95 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Trabzonspor have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eyüpspor have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Eyüpspor
1
Draws
3
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 0, Trabzonspor have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Eyüpspor 0-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Eyüpspor see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 36%, Trabzonspor 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Eyüpspor) and 64% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Trabzonspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 68% of Trabzonspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Eyüpspor's recent games and 64% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.