Eyüpspor vs Erzurumspor FK – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Erzurumspor FK at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eyüpspor vs Erzurumspor FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Eyüpspor host Erzurumspor FK at in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 March 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Eyüpspor — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Eyüpspor have posted 3W 0D 7L at — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Eyüpspor are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Erzurumspor FK have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Erzurumspor FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Erzurumspor FK's away record: 1W 2D 2L from 5 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Erzurumspor FK's 1.40 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Eyüpspor's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Eyüpspor have won 0, Erzurumspor FK 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2026, ended 0–2 with Erzurumspor FK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 80% of games.
Erzurumspor FK in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Eyüpspor 20% | Erzurumspor FK 30%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 50% | Erzurumspor FK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.05 xG and Erzurumspor FK 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.649 / defence 1.175 | Erzurumspor FK attack 0.821 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.237. Eyüpspor's attack strength of 0.649 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Eyüpspor games / 10 Erzurumspor FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 32% | Draw 29% | Erzurumspor FK 39%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Erzurumspor FK 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Erzurumspor FK are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Erzurumspor FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 20% | Erzurumspor FK 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Erzurumspor FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Mar 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 32% | Draw 29% | Erzurumspor FK 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Eyüpspor 1.05 / Erzurumspor FK 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.649 / def 1.175 | Erzurumspor FK attack 0.821 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Erzurumspor FK (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Erzurumspor FK xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Erzurumspor FK kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Erzurumspor FK is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 14 March 2027.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Erzurumspor FK part of?
Eyüpspor vs Erzurumspor FK is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Erzurumspor FK?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 32% chance of winning, Erzurumspor FK a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Erzurumspor FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Erzurumspor FK?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Eyüpspor and Erzurumspor FK will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Erzurumspor FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Erzurumspor FK?
Record (1 meetings): Eyüpspor 0W | Draws 0 | Erzurumspor FK 1W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Erzurumspor FK in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Erzurumspor FK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Eyüpspor's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against Erzurumspor FK's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Erzurumspor FK's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Erzurumspor FK Win
32%
3.13
29%
3.48
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.24
1.19
Erzurumspor FK xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
10%
10.31
14%
7.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 12.7 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Erzurumspor FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Erzurumspor FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.19 for Erzurumspor FK, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Erzurumspor FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eyüpspor come into this having played 10 games, going 1W 0D 9L for 0.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Erzurumspor FK sit at 1.40 PPG from 10 outings (4W 2D 4L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Erzurumspor FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Erzurumspor FK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.10 PPG clear of Eyüpspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Eyüpspor's home form reads 1W 0D 4L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Erzurumspor FK have taken 1.00 points per game from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Erzurumspor FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Eyüpspor are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game recently; Erzurumspor FK are on 0.90 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eyüpspor have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Erzurumspor FK in 30%.
Defensively: Erzurumspor FK in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Blended
Erzurumspor FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Erzurumspor FK in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 1W 0D 9L in their last 10 games (0.30 PPG), while Erzurumspor FK have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Erzurumspor FK away?
Erzurumspor FK's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 0.60 PPG; Erzurumspor FK away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Erzurumspor FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Erzurumspor FK in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eyüpspor and Erzurumspor FK runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Eyüpspor
0
Draws
1
Erzurumspor FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Erzurumspor FK?
From 1 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 0, Erzurumspor FK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Erzurumspor FK last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Erzurumspor FK 2-0 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Erzurumspor FK?
Erzurumspor FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Erzurumspor FK tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Eyüpspor 20% BTTS, Erzurumspor FK 40%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Eyüpspor) and 60% (Erzurumspor FK).
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor have failed to score in 80% of games; Erzurumspor FK in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Erzurumspor FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Erzurumspor FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 40% of Erzurumspor FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Erzurumspor FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Eyüpspor's recent games and 60% of Erzurumspor FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eyüpspor and Erzurumspor FK tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Erzurumspor FK in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.