📋

Poisson rates Erzurumspor FK at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Erzurumspor FK vs Çorum FK encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Çorum FK make the trip to to face Erzurumspor FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record favours Erzurumspor FK, who have won 6 of the last 10 meetings against Çorum FK — a 3D 1W return for the visitors.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The historical record gives Erzurumspor FK a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

League Table

Erzurumspor FK hold the table advantage, sitting 2nd with 0 points — 6 positions and 0 points clear of Çorum FK in 8th.

On home turf, Erzurumspor FK's Süper Lig record reads 0W 0D 0L this term. Çorum FK have gone 0W 0D 0L on their travels.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Erzurumspor FK 1.56 xG and Çorum FK 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzurumspor FK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Çorum FK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 0 Erzurumspor FK games / 0 Çorum FK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 45% | Draw 29% | Çorum FK 25%. Fair-value odds: Erzurumspor FK 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Çorum FK 4.00. Erzurumspor FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Erzurumspor FK as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Erzurumspor FK if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights