Erzurumspor FK vs Beşiktaş – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Erzurumspor FK vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Erzurumspor FK versus Beşiktaş in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 21 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Erzurumspor FK (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Erzurumspor FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Erzurumspor FK have posted 3W 0D 2L at — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at . At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Beşiktaş have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Beşiktaş are 0.50 PPG clear of Erzurumspor FK in recent Süper Lig fixtures (1.90 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Erzurumspor FK lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2026, ended 0–3 with Beşiktaş winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Erzurumspor FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Erzurumspor FK 30% versus Beşiktaş 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Erzurumspor FK 50% | Beşiktaş 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Erzurumspor FK 1.04 xG and Beşiktaş 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzurumspor FK attack 0.721 / defence 1.134 | Beşiktaş attack 0.980 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.237. Erzurumspor FK's attack strength of 0.721 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Erzurumspor FK games / 43 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 29% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 44%. Fair-value odds: Erzurumspor FK 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Beşiktaş 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Erzurumspor FK 20% | Beşiktaş 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Erzurumspor FK vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 29% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Erzurumspor FK 1.04 / Beşiktaş 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Erzurumspor FK attack 0.721 / def 1.134 | Beşiktaş attack 0.980 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Erzurumspor FK xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Beşiktaş xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Erzurumspor FK vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Erzurumspor FK vs Beşiktaş is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 21 February 2027.
What competition is Erzurumspor FK vs Beşiktaş part of?
Erzurumspor FK vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Erzurumspor FK vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Erzurumspor FK a 29% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Erzurumspor FK vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Erzurumspor FK and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Erzurumspor FK vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Erzurumspor FK and Beşiktaş?
Record (1 meetings): Erzurumspor FK 0W | Draws 0 | Beşiktaş 1W.
What form are Erzurumspor FK and Beşiktaş in?
Erzurumspor FK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Beşiktaş (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Erzurumspor FK's attack rating (0.72) and Beşiktaş's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (0.98x) against Erzurumspor FK's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 10/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
29%
3.51
27%
3.70
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Erzurumspor FK xG
Total xG
2.42
1.38
Beşiktaş xG
3.51
29%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
7%
13.87
16%
6.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Erzurumspor FK vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Erzurumspor FK and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Erzurumspor FK and 1.38 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Erzurumspor FK vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Erzurumspor FK's recent record stands at 4W 2D 4L from 10 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Erzurumspor FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş, meanwhile, have gone 6W 1D 3L across 10 games — 1.90 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beşiktaş by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Erzurumspor FK heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Erzurumspor FK have managed 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Erzurumspor FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Beşiktaş's away record stands at 1W 1D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beşiktaş's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Erzurumspor FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Erzurumspor FK are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 2.00 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Erzurumspor FK have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Defensively: Erzurumspor FK have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Erzurumspor FK
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Erzurumspor FK and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Erzurumspor FK have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 games (1.40 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Erzurumspor FK at home or Beşiktaş away?
Erzurumspor FK's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Erzurumspor FK at home: 1.80 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Erzurumspor FK or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Erzurumspor FK have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since September 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Erzurumspor FK
0
Draws
1
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Erzurumspor FK and Beşiktaş?
From 1 meetings on record, Erzurumspor FK have won 0, Beşiktaş have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Erzurumspor FK and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Beşiktaş 3-0 Erzurumspor FK.
Who has won more matches between Erzurumspor FK and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Erzurumspor FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Erzurumspor FK 20%, Beşiktaş 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Erzurumspor FK) and 60% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Erzurumspor FK keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Beşiktaş in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Erzurumspor FK home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Erzurumspor FK play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Erzurumspor FK's recent matches and 60% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Erzurumspor FK vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Erzurumspor FK's recent games and 60% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Erzurumspor FK and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Erzurumspor FK have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.