Erzurumspor FK vs Başakşehir – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Erzurumspor FK at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Erzurumspor FK vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 33 as Erzurumspor FK welcome Başakşehir to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 May 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Erzurumspor FK have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Erzurumspor FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Erzurumspor FK have posted 3W 0D 2L at — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at . At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Başakşehir — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Başakşehir have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Erzurumspor FK) versus 1.40 (Başakşehir). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Erzurumspor FK trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Başakşehir trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Erzurumspor FK 30% versus Başakşehir 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Erzurumspor FK 50% | Başakşehir 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Erzurumspor FK 1.18 xG and Başakşehir 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzurumspor FK attack 0.721 / defence 1.134 | Başakşehir attack 0.718 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.237. Erzurumspor FK's attack strength of 0.721 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Erzurumspor FK games / 43 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 40% | Draw 29% | Başakşehir 31%. Fair-value odds: Erzurumspor FK 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Başakşehir 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Erzurumspor FK are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Erzurumspor FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Erzurumspor FK 20% | Başakşehir 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Erzurumspor FK vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 40% | Draw 29% | Başakşehir 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Erzurumspor FK 1.18 / Başakşehir 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Erzurumspor FK attack 0.721 / def 1.134 | Başakşehir attack 0.718 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Erzurumspor FK (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Erzurumspor FK xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Başakşehir xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Erzurumspor FK vs Başakşehir kick off?
Erzurumspor FK vs Başakşehir is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 16 May 2027.
What competition is Erzurumspor FK vs Başakşehir part of?
Erzurumspor FK vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Erzurumspor FK vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Erzurumspor FK a 40% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Erzurumspor FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Erzurumspor FK vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Erzurumspor FK and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Erzurumspor FK vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Erzurumspor FK and Başakşehir?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Erzurumspor FK and Başakşehir in?
Erzurumspor FK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Başakşehir (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Erzurumspor FK's attack at 0.72x the league average against Başakşehir's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Erzurumspor FK's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Erzurumspor FK Win
40%
2.52
29%
3.43
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Erzurumspor FK xG
Total xG
2.18
1.01
Başakşehir xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
10%
10.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Erzurumspor FK vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Erzurumspor FK and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Erzurumspor FK and 1.01 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Erzurumspor FK vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Erzurumspor FK's recent record stands at 4W 2D 4L from 10 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Erzurumspor FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 4L across 10 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Erzurumspor FK on 1.40 PPG, Başakşehir on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Erzurumspor FK have managed 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Erzurumspor FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Başakşehir's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Başakşehir's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Erzurumspor FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Erzurumspor FK are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.70 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Erzurumspor FK have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Defensively: Erzurumspor FK have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Erzurumspor FK
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Erzurumspor FK and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Erzurumspor FK have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 games (1.40 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Erzurumspor FK at home or Başakşehir away?
Erzurumspor FK's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Erzurumspor FK at home: 2.25 PPG; Başakşehir away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Erzurumspor FK or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Erzurumspor FK have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 30%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Erzurumspor FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Başakşehir see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Erzurumspor FK 25% BTTS, Başakşehir 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Erzurumspor FK) and 50% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Erzurumspor FK keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Başakşehir in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Erzurumspor FK home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Erzurumspor FK play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Erzurumspor FK's recent matches and 25% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Erzurumspor FK vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Erzurumspor FK's recent games and 50% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Erzurumspor FK and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Erzurumspor FK have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.