Beşiktaş 6-2 Çorum FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Çorum FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Beşiktaş and Çorum FK meet at Besiktas Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Monday 31 August 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
Beşiktaş (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Beşiktaş at Besiktas Park this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at Besiktas Park than their overall form suggests.
Çorum FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Çorum FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Beşiktaş's 1.40 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Çorum FK's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.56 xG and Çorum FK 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.008 / defence 0.861 | Çorum FK attack 0.971 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.202. Data: 36 Beşiktaş games / 2 Çorum FK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 50% | Draw 25% | Çorum FK 24%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Çorum FK 4.17. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Çorum FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Besiktas Park • Kick-off: Monday 31 Aug 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 50% | Draw 25% | Çorum FK 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Beşiktaş 1.56 / Çorum FK 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.008 / def 0.861 | Çorum FK attack 0.971 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Çorum FK xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Çorum FK kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Çorum FK kicked off at 18:30 on Monday 31 August 2026 at Besiktas Park.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Çorum FK?
Beşiktaş 6 - 2 Çorum FK.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Çorum FK being played?
The match is being played at Besiktas Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Çorum FK part of?
Beşiktaş vs Çorum FK is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Çorum FK?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 50% chance of winning, Çorum FK a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Çorum FK?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Beşiktaş and Çorum FK will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Çorum FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Çorum FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Beşiktaş and Çorum FK in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Çorum FK (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Çorum FK's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Çorum FK's attack (0.97x) against Beşiktaş's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
The sample (36/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
50%
1.99
25%
3.94
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.56
1.00
Çorum FK xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
5%
19.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.1 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Çorum FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Çorum FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.00 for Çorum FK, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Çorum FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beşiktaş's recent record stands at 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Beşiktaş, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Çorum FK, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 1L across 2 games — 0.50 PPG, with D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Çorum FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beşiktaş by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Çorum FK heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Çorum FK are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Early Season
Çorum FK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Çorum FK in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Çorum FK have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Beşiktaş or Çorum FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Çorum FK in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Beşiktaş
0
Draws
0
Çorum FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Çorum FK?
From 1 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 1, Çorum FK have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Çorum FK last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Beşiktaş 6-2 Çorum FK.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Çorum FK?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Çorum FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Çorum FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 50% of Çorum FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beşiktaş vs Çorum FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 50% of Çorum FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Beşiktaş run riot with a 6-2 hammering of Çorum FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Çorum FK 6-2 at Besiktas Park, Regular Season - 3, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.56 xG and Çorum FK 1.00 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 6-2 for 8 actual goals. Beşiktaş beat their projection by 4.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Çorum FK outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.01 / defence 0.86 against Çorum FK attack 0.97 / defence 1.13, drawn from 36/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 50% | Draw 25% | Çorum FK 24%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 0%, Çorum FK 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Beşiktaş scored 6 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Çorum FK scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.