Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Beşiktaş (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Beşiktaş face Konyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Besiktas Park plays host to Beşiktaş versus Konyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 18 April 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beşiktaş have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Besiktas Park this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Konyaspor (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Beşiktaş's favour (1.90 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Beşiktaş have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 10 meetings, with Konyaspor managing just 2 victories and 2 draws shared.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 2–1 with Beşiktaş winning.
The historical record gives Beşiktaş a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 57% versus Konyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 59% | Konyaspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.82 xG and Konyaspor 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.300 / defence 0.803 | Konyaspor attack 0.767 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.237. Beşiktaş carry an above-average attack strength of 1.300 — their λ of 1.82 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Beşiktaş games / 44 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 63% | Draw 22% | Konyaspor 15%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Konyaspor 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Beşiktaş 50% | Konyaspor 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Besiktas Park • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Apr 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 63% | Draw 22% | Konyaspor 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 45% | xG Beşiktaş 1.82 / Konyaspor 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.300 / def 0.803 | Konyaspor attack 0.767 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Konyaspor xG
45%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 18 April 2027 at Besiktas Park.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Besiktas Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 63% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Beşiktaş and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Konyaspor?
Record (10 meetings): Beşiktaş 6W | Draws 2 | Konyaspor 2W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Konyaspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (0.77x) against Beşiktaş's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 1-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
63%
1.60
22%
4.48
15%
6.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.58
0.76
Konyaspor xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
6.59
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
16%
6.16
Win to Nil
29%
3.43
2%
40.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 10.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 0.76 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Beşiktaş have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 23W 10D 11L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Konyaspor's form line: 12W 12D 20L from 44 games, 1.09 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Beşiktaş are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Konyaspor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Beşiktaş have posted 2.05 PPG from 21 outings (13W 4D 4L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 4W 5D 12L from 21 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.11 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 23W 10D 11L in their last 44 games (1.80 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 12W 12D 20L in their last 44 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Konyaspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.05 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Beşiktaş go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Beşiktaş
2
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 6, Konyaspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Beşiktaş 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Konyaspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 62%, Konyaspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Beşiktaş and 57% for Konyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Konyaspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Beşiktaş's games and 67% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Beşiktaş's matches and 57% of Konyaspor's.
Do Beşiktaş and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.