Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 51%, yet in-form Trabzonspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium plays host to Başakşehir versus Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 31 January 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Başakşehir (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Başakşehir are significantly better at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Trabzonspor have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Trabzonspor are 0.80 PPG clear of Başakşehir in recent Süper Lig fixtures (2.20 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 10 meetings, Trabzonspor have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Başakşehir's 2, with 2 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2026, ended 1–2 with Trabzonspor winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Trabzonspor have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Başakşehir — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 54% versus Trabzonspor 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 61% | Trabzonspor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.92 xG and Trabzonspor 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.248 / defence 0.886 | Trabzonspor attack 1.234 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.237. Trabzonspor have an above-average attack strength of 1.234 — the away xG of 1.35 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Başakşehir games / 43 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 51% | Draw 22% | Trabzonspor 27%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.96 | Draw 4.55 | Trabzonspor 3.70. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Trabzonspor (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Başakşehir if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 40% | Trabzonspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jan 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 51% | Draw 22% | Trabzonspor 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG Başakşehir 1.92 / Trabzonspor 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.248 / def 0.886 | Trabzonspor attack 1.234 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Trabzonspor xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 31 January 2027 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
Where is Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 51% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 27% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Başakşehir and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Trabzonspor?
Record (10 meetings): Başakşehir 2W | Draws 2 | Trabzonspor 6W.
What form are Başakşehir and Trabzonspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Trabzonspor (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Başakşehir's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Trabzonspor's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (1.23x) against Başakşehir's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
51%
1.97
22%
4.51
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.28
1.35
Trabzonspor xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
15%
6.84
Win to Nil
13%
7.61
4%
25.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.35 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Başakşehir come into this having played 44 games, going 20W 11D 13L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Trabzonspor sit at 2.07 PPG from 44 outings (27W 10D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Başakşehir's home form reads 12W 6D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Trabzonspor have taken 1.95 points per game from 22 outings (13W 4D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Başakşehir are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.93 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor in 61%.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 20W 11D 13L in their last 44 games (1.61 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 27W 10D 7L in their last 44 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.91 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.95 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won 0-3 on 15 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Başakşehir have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Başakşehir
2
Draws
6
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Trabzonspor 2-1 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 59%, Trabzonspor 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Başakşehir and 64% for Trabzonspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Başakşehir's games and 68% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Başakşehir's matches and 64% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Başakşehir and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.