Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 14 as Başakşehir welcome Fenerbahçe to Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 December 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's home record at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Başakşehir are significantly better at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Fenerbahçe — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Başakşehir 1.40 PPG, Fenerbahçe 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Fenerbahçe, who boast 7 victories compared to 2 for Başakşehir.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 1–3 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Başakşehir trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 54% versus Fenerbahçe 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 61% | Fenerbahçe 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.75 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.423 / defence 0.982 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.038 / defence 0.774. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Başakşehir carry an above-average attack strength of 1.423 — their λ of 1.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Fenerbahçe's defence strength of 0.774 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Başakşehir games / 44 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 48% | Draw 23% | Fenerbahçe 28%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Fenerbahçe 3.57. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Başakşehir as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. This conflicts with form data: Başakşehir 40% | Fenerbahçe 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 48% | Draw 23% | Fenerbahçe 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Başakşehir 1.75 / Fenerbahçe 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.423 / def 0.982 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.038 / def 0.774 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Fenerbahçe xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
Where is Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 48% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe?
Record (10 meetings): Başakşehir 2W | Draws 1 | Fenerbahçe 7W.
What form are Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Başakşehir's attacking strength (1.42x league average) is weighed against Fenerbahçe's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
48%
2.06
23%
4.26
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.02
1.28
Fenerbahçe xG
2.06
48%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
5%
20.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.8 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.28 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Başakşehir's recent record stands at 20W 11D 13L from 44 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 26W 12D 6L across 44 games — 2.05 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Başakşehir heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Başakşehir have managed 12W 6D 4L from 22 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 12W 6D 4L across 22 trips, a 1.91 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.30 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Fenerbahçe in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 20W 11D 13L in their last 44 games (1.61 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 26W 12D 6L in their last 44 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.91 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2023, when Fenerbahçe won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Başakşehir
1
Draws
7
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 2, Fenerbahçe have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Fenerbahçe 3-1 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 59%, Fenerbahçe 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Başakşehir and 64% for Fenerbahçe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 46% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Başakşehir's matches and 64% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.