Başakşehir vs Amed – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 68%, yet in-form Amed provide a compelling counter-argument — this Başakşehir vs Amed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Başakşehir host Amed at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Başakşehir are significantly better at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Amed have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Amed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Amed have posted 1W 2D 1L from 4 away outings — 1.25 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.25 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Amed are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Başakşehir have won 0, Amed 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2026, ended 0–5 with Amed winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Amed in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 50% versus Amed 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Başakşehir 60% | Amed 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 2.65 xG and Amed 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.423 / defence 0.982 | Amed attack 1.003 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Başakşehir carry an above-average attack strength of 1.423 — their λ of 2.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Başakşehir games / 10 Amed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 68% | Draw 17% | Amed 16%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.47 | Draw 5.88 | Amed 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (68%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.89. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.89 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.65 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 68% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Amed (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results.
The Poisson model projects 3.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 40% | Amed 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Amed | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 68% | Draw 17% | Amed 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 66% | xG Başakşehir 2.65 / Amed 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.423 / def 0.982 | Amed attack 1.003 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.65
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Amed xG
66%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Amed kick off?
Başakşehir vs Amed is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 21 February 2027 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
Where is Başakşehir vs Amed being played?
The match is being played at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Amed part of?
Başakşehir vs Amed is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Amed?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 68% chance of winning, Amed a 16% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Amed?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Başakşehir and Amed will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Amed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Amed?
Record (1 meetings): Başakşehir 0W | Draws 0 | Amed 1W.
What form are Başakşehir and Amed in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Amed (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Başakşehir's attack rating (1.42) and Amed's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 2.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Amed's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.9%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.9%), 1-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
68%
1.48
17%
5.98
16%
6.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.65
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.89
1.23
Amed xG
1.48
68%
Home win
5.98
17%
Draw
6.39
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
7%
14.20
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
1%
90.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Amed?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Amed expected to score?
The model projects 2.65 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.23 for Amed, a combined total of 3.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Amed?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Başakşehir come into this having played 10 games, going 4W 2D 4L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Amed sit at 2.30 PPG from 10 outings (7W 2D 1L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Amed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Amed carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Başakşehir's home form reads 3W 0D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Başakşehir are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Amed have taken 1.25 points per game from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L). That's a step down from their 2.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Amed's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Amed are on 2.50 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Amed in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Amed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Amed in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 games (1.40 PPG), while Amed have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Amed away?
Başakşehir's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 2.25 PPG; Amed away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Amed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Amed in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Başakşehir
0
Draws
1
Amed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Amed?
From 1 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 0, Amed have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Amed last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Amed 5-0 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Amed?
Amed have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Başakşehir at 75%, Amed at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Başakşehir and 75% for Amed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Amed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Amed?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Başakşehir's games and 75% of Amed's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Başakşehir vs Amed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Başakşehir's matches and 75% of Amed's.
Do Başakşehir and Amed tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Amed in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.