Amed vs Rizespor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Amed at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amed vs Rizespor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Amed and Rizespor meet at Diyarbakir Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Amed have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Amed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amed at Diyarbakir Stadium this season: 6W 0D 0L from 6 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.17 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Diyarbakir Stadium. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Amed are significantly better at Diyarbakir Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Rizespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Amed's favour (2.30 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Amed half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Rizespor half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amed 60% versus Rizespor 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Amed 80% | Rizespor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amed 1.78 xG and Rizespor 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amed attack 1.306 / defence 0.898 | Rizespor attack 0.969 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.237. Amed carry an above-average attack strength of 1.306 — their λ of 1.78 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 9 Amed games / 44 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amed 54% | Draw 23% | Rizespor 23%. Fair-value odds: Amed 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Rizespor 4.35. Amed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Amed as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amed if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Amed 50% | Rizespor 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amed vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Diyarbakir Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amed 54% | Draw 23% | Rizespor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Amed 1.78 / Rizespor 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Amed attack 1.306 / def 0.898 | Rizespor attack 0.969 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Amed (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Amed xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Rizespor xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amed vs Rizespor kick off?
Amed vs Rizespor is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Diyarbakir Stadium.
Where is Amed vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Diyarbakir Stadium.
What competition is Amed vs Rizespor part of?
Amed vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Amed vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Amed a 54% chance of winning, Rizespor a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Amed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amed vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Amed and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Amed vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amed and Rizespor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amed and Rizespor in?
Amed (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Rizespor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Amed's attack at 1.31x the league average against Rizespor's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (0.97x) against Amed's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 9/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amed Win
54%
1.86
23%
4.29
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Amed xG
Total xG
2.85
1.08
Rizespor xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
4%
25.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.0 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amed vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Amed and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Amed and 1.08 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Amed vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Amed come into this having played 10 games, going 7W 2D 1L for 2.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Amed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rizespor sit at 1.10 PPG from 10 outings (3W 2D 5L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Amed carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.20 PPG clear of Rizespor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Amed's home form reads 6W 0D 0L across 6 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.30 PPG overall — Amed are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Rizespor have taken 1.83 points per game from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.10 PPG overall record — Rizespor travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amed come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Amed are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.10 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Amed have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amed
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amed and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Amed have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 games (2.30 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amed at home or Rizespor away?
Amed's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amed at home: 3.00 PPG; Rizespor away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Amed or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amed have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Rizespor in 30%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amed 50%, Rizespor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Amed and 50% for Rizespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Amed keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Rizespor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amed home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amed play Rizespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Amed's recent matches and 50% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amed vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Amed's matches and 50% of Rizespor's.
Do Amed and Rizespor tend to score early?
Amed have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.