Alanyaspor vs Rizespor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Rizespor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alanyaspor host Rizespor at Alanya Oba Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Alanya Oba Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alanyaspor 1.20 PPG, Rizespor 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Alanyaspor have won 4, Rizespor 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 9 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Sep 2026, ended 1–0 with Alanyaspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Rizespor in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 60% versus Rizespor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 49% | Rizespor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.18 xG and Rizespor 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.864 / defence 0.950 | Rizespor attack 0.969 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.237. Data: 43 Alanyaspor games / 44 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 37% | Draw 28% | Rizespor 35%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Rizespor 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Alanyaspor 60% | Rizespor 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Alanya Oba Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 37% | Draw 28% | Rizespor 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Alanyaspor 1.18 / Rizespor 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.864 / def 0.950 | Rizespor attack 0.969 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Rizespor xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Rizespor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 14 February 2027 at Alanya Oba Stadium.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Alanya Oba Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Rizespor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 37% chance of winning, Rizespor a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Alanyaspor and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Rizespor?
Record (9 meetings): Alanyaspor 4W | Draws 3 | Rizespor 2W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Rizespor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Rizespor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 0.86x the league average against Rizespor's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rizespor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
37%
2.72
28%
3.54
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.31
1.14
Rizespor xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
12%
8.48
11%
9.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.14 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Alanyaspor come into this having played 43 games, going 10W 19D 14L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rizespor sit at 1.21 PPG from 43 outings (13W 13D 17L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.14 PPG, Rizespor on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Alanyaspor's home form reads 7W 7D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Rizespor have taken 1.14 points per game from 21 outings (5W 9D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.33 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 10W 19D 14L in their last 43 games (1.14 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 13W 13D 17L in their last 43 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Rizespor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.33 PPG; Rizespor away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Rizespor in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 7 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Rizespor specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Alanyaspor
3
Draws
2
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Rizespor?
From 9 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 4, Rizespor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 7 September 2026, when Rizespor 0-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Rizespor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 48%, Rizespor 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Alanyaspor) and 57% (Rizespor).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Alanyaspor have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Rizespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 62% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 57% of Rizespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Rizespor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.