Alanyaspor vs Rizespor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 43%, yet in-form Rizespor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Alanyaspor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alanyaspor host Rizespor at Alanya Oba Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alanyaspor's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Alanya Oba Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rizespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rizespor away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Rizespor are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Alanyaspor have won 3, Rizespor 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Rizespor in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 62% versus Rizespor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 46% | Rizespor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.38 xG and Rizespor 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.023 / defence 0.869 | Rizespor attack 1.018 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.243. Data: 37 Alanyaspor games / 37 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 43% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 30%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Rizespor 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rizespor (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Alanyaspor 70% | Rizespor 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Alanya Oba Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 43% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Alanyaspor 1.38 / Rizespor 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.023 / def 0.869 | Rizespor attack 1.018 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Rizespor xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Rizespor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 14 February 2027 at Alanya Oba Stadium.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Alanya Oba Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Rizespor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 43% chance of winning, Rizespor a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Alanyaspor and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Rizespor?
Record (8 meetings): Alanyaspor 3W | Draws 3 | Rizespor 2W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Rizespor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Rizespor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 1.02x the league average against Rizespor's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rizespor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
43%
2.31
27%
3.73
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.48
1.10
Rizespor xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
14%
6.94
8%
13.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.10 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Alanyaspor come into this having played 37 games, going 8W 17D 12L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Rizespor sit at 1.27 PPG from 37 outings (12W 11D 14L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Rizespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.11 PPG, Rizespor on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Alanyaspor's home form reads 7W 5D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Rizespor have taken 1.06 points per game from 18 outings (4W 7D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.32 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Early Season
Rizespor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 8W 17D 12L in their last 37 games (1.11 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 12W 11D 14L in their last 37 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Rizespor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.44 PPG; Rizespor away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Rizespor specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Alanyaspor
3
Draws
2
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Rizespor?
From 8 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 3, Rizespor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Rizespor 1-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Rizespor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 44%, Rizespor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Alanyaspor) and 61% (Rizespor).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Alanyaspor have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Rizespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Alanyaspor's games and 67% of Rizespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 61% of Rizespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Rizespor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.