Alanyaspor vs Amed – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 62%, yet in-form Amed provide a compelling counter-argument — this Alanyaspor vs Amed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alanyaspor host Amed at Alanya Oba Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 May 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alanyaspor at Alanya Oba Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Amed stand at 2W 0D 1L from 3 Süper Lig matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Amed have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Amed — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
Amed in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 67% versus Amed 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 33% | Amed 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.82 xG and Amed 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.025 / defence 0.872 | Amed attack 0.717 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.218. Amed bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Alanyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Alanyaspor games / 3 Amed games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 62% | Draw 22% | Amed 15%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Amed 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Alanyaspor (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Amed (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Alanyaspor 70% | Amed 33%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Amed | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Alanya Oba Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 May 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 62% | Draw 22% | Amed 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 45% | xG Alanyaspor 1.82 / Amed 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.025 / def 0.872 | Amed attack 0.717 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Amed xG
45%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Amed kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Amed is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 2 May 2027 at Alanya Oba Stadium.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Amed being played?
The match is being played at Alanya Oba Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Amed part of?
Alanyaspor vs Amed is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Amed?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 62% chance of winning, Amed a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Amed?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Alanyaspor and Amed will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Amed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Amed?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alanyaspor and Amed in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Amed (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (1.02) and Amed's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Amed's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 1-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
62%
1.60
22%
4.48
15%
6.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.58
0.76
Amed xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
6.60
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
29%
3.42
2%
40.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 10.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Amed?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Amed expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 0.76 for Amed, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Amed?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Alanyaspor have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 1W 1D 1L record — D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Amed's form line: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Amed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Amed are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Alanyaspor.
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Amed are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Early Season
Amed
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Amed in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Amed have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Alanyaspor or Amed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Amed in 33%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 67%, Amed 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Alanyaspor) and 67% (Amed).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Amed in 33%; Amed in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Amed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Amed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 33% of Amed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Amed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 67% of Amed's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Amed tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Amed in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.