Trabzonspor 1-0 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 61%, yet in-form Eyüpspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Papara Park plays host to Trabzonspor versus Eyüpspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Monday 10 February 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Trabzonspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trabzonspor have posted 6W 3D 1L at Papara Park — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Papara Park. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at Papara Park than their overall form suggests.
Eyüpspor (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Eyüpspor have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Eyüpspor are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Trabzonspor lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Eyüpspor — key trading statistics (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 57% versus Eyüpspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 62% | Eyüpspor 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 2.06 xG and Eyüpspor 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.386 / defence 0.818 | Eyüpspor attack 0.986 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.679 / away 1.240. Trabzonspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.386 — their λ of 2.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 58 Trabzonspor games / 21 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 61% | Draw 23% | Eyüpspor 16%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Eyüpspor 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 61% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Eyüpspor (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 50% | Eyüpspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Monday 10 Feb 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 61% | Draw 23% | Eyüpspor 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 56% | xG Trabzonspor 2.06 / Eyüpspor 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.386 / def 0.818 | Eyüpspor attack 0.986 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.679 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Eyüpspor xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 10 February 2025 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor?
Trabzonspor 1 - 0 Eyüpspor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 61% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Trabzonspor and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Eyüpspor?
Record (1 meetings): Trabzonspor 0W | Draws 1 | Eyüpspor 0W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Eyüpspor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Eyüpspor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (1.39x league average) is weighed against Eyüpspor's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. Flip it around — Eyüpspor's attack (0.99x) against Trabzonspor's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 58/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
61%
1.65
23%
4.33
16%
6.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.06
1.00
Eyüpspor xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
6.15
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
13%
7.89
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
2%
48.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.00 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trabzonspor's recent record stands at 7W 8D 6L from 21 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eyüpspor, meanwhile, have gone 11W 6D 4L across 21 games — 1.86 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Eyüpspor by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Trabzonspor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Trabzonspor have managed 7W 3D 1L from 11 games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Trabzonspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Eyüpspor's away record stands at 4W 4D 3L across 11 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Eyüpspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.62 scored and 0.90 conceded. Trabzonspor's scoring rate against Eyüpspor's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Eyüpspor in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 7W 8D 6L in their last 21 games (1.38 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 11W 6D 4L in their last 21 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Eyüpspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.18 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Trabzonspor go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trabzonspor have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Eyüpspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Trabzonspor
1
Draws
0
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Eyüpspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 3, Eyüpspor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Eyüpspor 0-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Eyüpspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 54%, Eyüpspor 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Trabzonspor) and 46% (Eyüpspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 73% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Eyüpspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Trabzonspor's games and 64% of Eyüpspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Trabzonspor's matches and 46% of Eyüpspor's.
Do Trabzonspor and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Eyüpspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Eyüpspor 1-0 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 2.06 xG and Eyüpspor 1.00 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Trabzonspor fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Eyüpspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.39 / defence 0.82 against Eyüpspor attack 0.99 / defence 0.89, drawn from 58/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 61% | Draw 23% | Eyüpspor 16%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 62%, Eyüpspor 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Eyüpspor arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.38. Form was overturned, with Trabzonspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.73 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.