Trabzonspor 1-0 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Trabzonspor face Başakşehir.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Başakşehir make the trip to Papara Park to face Trabzonspor in Süper Lig (matchday 9). The match kicks off on Saturday 19 October 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Trabzonspor (all games): 4W 6D 0L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Trabzonspor at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Başakşehir have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Başakşehir have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Trabzonspor's last 10 home games and Başakşehir's last 10 away games) — Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Başakşehir in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 May 2024, ended Trabzonspor 1–0 Başakşehir — a Trabzonspor win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Trabzonspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Başakşehir goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 58% versus Başakşehir 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 53% | Başakşehir 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.64 xG and Başakşehir 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.243 / defence 1.105 | Başakşehir attack 0.986 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.310. Data: built from Trabzonspor's last 45 games and Başakşehir's last 45.
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 41% | Draw 27% | Başakşehir 32%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.43 | Draw 3.73 | Başakşehir 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.64 / 1.43) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Trabzonspor's last 10 home games and Başakşehir's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Trabzonspor 70% (last 10 home games) | Başakşehir 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 9 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 41% | Draw 27% | Başakşehir 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Trabzonspor 1.64 / Başakşehir 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.243 / def 1.105 | Başakşehir attack 0.986 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Başakşehir xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir FAQs
What time does Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Trabzonspor 1 - 0 Başakşehir.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 9) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 41% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Trabzonspor and Başakşehir will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.24x the league average against Başakşehir's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Başakşehir's attack (0.99x) against Trabzonspor's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from Trabzonspor's last 45 games and Başakşehir's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
41%
2.43
27%
3.73
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.06
1.43
Başakşehir xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
10%
10.15
6%
15.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.43 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trabzonspor come into this having played 45 games, going 22W 10D 13L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-D.
On the other side, Başakşehir sit at 1.67 PPG from 45 outings (22W 9D 14L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Trabzonspor against 1.67 for Başakşehir. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Trabzonspor's home form reads 13W 3D 6L across their last 22 home games, a 1.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Başakşehir have taken 1.59 points per game from their last 22 away games (10W 5D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.58 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Early Season
Başakşehir
Early Season
Trabzonspor (Home) vs Başakşehir (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Trabzonspor
Early Season
Başakşehir
Early Season
❓ Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir Form FAQs
What form are Trabzonspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 22W 10D 13L in their last 45 games (1.69 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 22W 9D 14L in their last 45 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Trabzonspor's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 1.91 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won Başakşehir 0-3 Trabzonspor on 15 Mar 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trabzonspor have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Trabzonspor
2
Draws
2
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Başakşehir?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Trabzonspor have won 6, Başakşehir have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: Trabzonspor 2-1 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Başakşehir?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 64%, Başakşehir 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Trabzonspor) and 41% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir in 32%; Başakşehir in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Trabzonspor and Başakşehir matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 46% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Trabzonspor and Başakşehir matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 41% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Başakşehir matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 64% of Başakşehir's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Başakşehir 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Başakşehir 1-0 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.64 xG and Başakşehir 1.43 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Başakşehir landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.24 / defence 1.10 against Başakşehir attack 0.99 / defence 0.89, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 41% | Draw 27% | Başakşehir 32%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 53%, Başakşehir 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Başakşehir's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.69 PPG, Başakşehir 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.