Trabzonspor 5-0 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trabzonspor host Antalyaspor at Papara Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 January 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trabzonspor stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Papara Park, Trabzonspor have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at Papara Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Antalyaspor have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antalyaspor away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Trabzonspor 1.00 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Trabzonspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Antalyaspor in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Trabzonspor have won 2, Antalyaspor 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Antalyaspor in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trabzonspor 60% and Antalyaspor 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 58% | Antalyaspor 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 2.10 xG and Antalyaspor 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.209 / defence 0.987 | Antalyaspor attack 0.874 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.222. Data: 55 Trabzonspor games / 55 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 60% | Draw 24% | Antalyaspor 17%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Antalyaspor 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 60% | Antalyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jan 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 60% | Draw 24% | Antalyaspor 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Trabzonspor 2.10 / Antalyaspor 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.209 / def 0.987 | Antalyaspor attack 0.874 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Antalyaspor xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 12 January 2025 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor?
Trabzonspor 5 - 0 Antalyaspor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 60% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor?
Record (6 meetings): Trabzonspor 2W | Draws 2 | Antalyaspor 2W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Antalyaspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.21x the league average against Antalyaspor's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
60%
1.68
24%
4.21
17%
6.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.15
1.05
Antalyaspor xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
6.04
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
12%
8.14
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
2%
49.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.05 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trabzonspor come into this having played 55 games, going 25W 11D 19L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Antalyaspor sit at 1.27 PPG from 55 outings (18W 16D 21L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trabzonspor on 1.56 PPG, Antalyaspor on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Trabzonspor's home form reads 16W 4D 7L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Antalyaspor have taken 0.81 points per game from 27 outings (5W 7D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.18 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Antalyaspor in 60%.
Last 55 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 25W 11D 19L in their last 55 games (1.56 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 18W 16D 21L in their last 55 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 1.93 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Jan 2025, when Trabzonspor won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Trabzonspor
3
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 5, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Antalyaspor 1-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 59%, Antalyaspor 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Trabzonspor) and 52% (Antalyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Antalyaspor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Antalyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Trabzonspor's games and 63% of Antalyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Trabzonspor's matches and 52% of Antalyaspor's.
Do Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Trabzonspor run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Antalyaspor 5-0 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 2.10 xG and Antalyaspor 1.05 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Trabzonspor beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Antalyaspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.21 / defence 0.99 against Antalyaspor attack 0.87 / defence 1.09, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 60% | Draw 24% | Antalyaspor 17%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 58%, Antalyaspor 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.56 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.