İstanbulspor 1-2 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as İstanbulspor face Fatih Karagümrük.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
İstanbulspor host Fatih Karagümrük at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 33). Kick-off is Saturday 20 April 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, İstanbulspor have gone 1W 3D 6L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
İstanbulspor's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fatih Karagümrük — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 0W 1D 9L from their last 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — İstanbulspor at 0.60 PPG versus Fatih Karagümrük's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, İstanbulspor have won 1, Fatih Karagümrük 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Dec 2023, ended İstanbulspor 0–3 Fatih Karagümrük — a Fatih Karagümrük win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
İstanbulspor in-play tendencies (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Fatih Karagümrük in-play tendencies (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — İstanbulspor 48% versus Fatih Karagümrük 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (İstanbulspor 54% | Fatih Karagümrük 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: İstanbulspor surrender their half-time lead 54% of the time, while Fatih Karagümrük have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects İstanbulspor 1.12 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: İstanbulspor attack 0.655 / defence 1.472 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.665 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.228. İstanbulspor's attack rating of 0.655 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Fatih Karagümrük's attack rating of 0.665 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.20. İstanbulspor's defence rating of 1.472 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Fatih Karagümrük's projected output up. Data: built from İstanbulspor's last 68 games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 68.
Result probabilities: İstanbulspor 32% | Draw 33% | Fatih Karagümrük 36%. Fair-value odds: İstanbulspor 3.15 | Draw 3.05 | Fatih Karagümrük 2.81. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fatih Karagümrük at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: İstanbulspor 60% (last 10 home games) | Fatih Karagümrük 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 33 | Venue: Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: İstanbulspor 32% | Draw 33% | Fatih Karagümrük 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG İstanbulspor 1.12 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: İstanbulspor attack 0.655 / def 1.472 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.665 / def 1.179 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
İstanbulspor xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Fatih Karagümrük xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük FAQs
What time does İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What was the final score in İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
İstanbulspor 1 - 2 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What competition is İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 33) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives İstanbulspor a 32% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 36% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both İstanbulspor and Fatih Karagümrük will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates İstanbulspor's attack at 0.66x the league average against Fatih Karagümrük's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fatih Karagümrük's attack versus İstanbulspor's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from İstanbulspor's last 68 games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
32%
3.15
33%
3.05
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
İstanbulspor xG
Total xG
2.33
1.20
Fatih Karagümrük xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
10%
10.49
12%
8.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.7 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are İstanbulspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for İstanbulspor and 1.20 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
İstanbulspor come into this having played 68 games, going 16W 12D 40L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Fatih Karagümrük sit at 1.19 PPG from 68 outings (20W 21D 27L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: İstanbulspor on 0.88 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
İstanbulspor's home form reads 8W 6D 20L across their last 34 home games, a 0.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Fatih Karagümrük have taken 0.91 points per game from their last 34 away games (7W 10D 17L).
Goals in Recent Form
İstanbulspor are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.62 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
İstanbulspor
Current Season
Fatih Karagümrük
Current Season
İstanbulspor (Home) vs Fatih Karagümrük (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
İstanbulspor
Current Season
Fatih Karagümrük
Current Season
❓ İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük Form FAQs
What form are İstanbulspor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
İstanbulspor have gone 16W 12D 40L in their last 68 games (0.88 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 20W 21D 27L in their last 68 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — İstanbulspor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Fatih Karagümrük's away record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — İstanbulspor at home: 0.88 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Fatih Karagümrük have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Dec 2023, when Fatih Karagümrük won Fatih Karagümrük 3-0 İstanbulspor.
İstanbulspor's record when hosting Fatih Karagümrük specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
İstanbulspor
0
Draws
3
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between İstanbulspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, İstanbulspor have won 1, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did İstanbulspor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 April 2024: İstanbulspor 1-2 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between İstanbulspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
İstanbulspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — İstanbulspor 53%, Fatih Karagümrük 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (İstanbulspor) and 56% (Fatih Karagümrük). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: İstanbulspor have failed to score in 35% of games; Fatih Karagümrük in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = İstanbulspor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in İstanbulspor and Fatih Karagümrük matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of İstanbulspor's games and 59% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are İstanbulspor and Fatih Karagümrük matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of İstanbulspor's matches and 56% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do İstanbulspor and Fatih Karagümrük matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of İstanbulspor's recent matches and 81% of Fatih Karagümrük's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fatih Karagümrük edge out İstanbulspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat İstanbulspor 1-2 at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting İstanbulspor 1.12 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.20 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of İstanbulspor attack 0.66 / defence 1.47 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.67 / defence 1.18, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it İstanbulspor 32% | Draw 33% | Fatih Karagümrük 36%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (İstanbulspor 54%, Fatih Karagümrük 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
İstanbulspor's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — İstanbulspor 0.88 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fatih Karagümrük win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.