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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 66%, yet in-form Antalyaspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 33 as Sivasspor welcome Antalyaspor to BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Sivasspor at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sivasspor are significantly better at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.

Antalyaspor — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Antalyaspor away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Antalyaspor's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Sivasspor's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Antalyaspor, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Sivasspor.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2024, ended 1–2 with Antalyaspor winning.

It is worth noting that Antalyaspor have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Profile

Sivasspor in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Antalyaspor in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 60% versus Antalyaspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 53% | Antalyaspor 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 2.20 xG and Antalyaspor 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 1.142 / defence 1.133 | Antalyaspor attack 0.721 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.162. Antalyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing Sivasspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 69 Sivasspor games / 68 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sivasspor 66% | Draw 19% | Antalyaspor 15%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 1.52 | Draw 5.26 | Antalyaspor 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Sivasspor (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Sivasspor are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Antalyaspor (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Sivasspor 70% | Antalyaspor 30%.

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