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Poisson rates Samsunspor at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor encounter.

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Match Analysis

Samsunspor host Trabzonspor at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 January 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Samsunspor have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Samsunspor have posted 5W 3D 2L at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Trabzonspor — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Samsunspor carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Samsunspor, 1 for Trabzonspor and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 3–1 with Samsunspor winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Samsunspor trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).

Trabzonspor trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 50% versus Trabzonspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 44% | Trabzonspor 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 2.01 xG and Trabzonspor 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 1.155 / defence 0.939 | Trabzonspor attack 1.020 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.209. Data: 54 Samsunspor games / 54 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Samsunspor 55% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Trabzonspor 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Samsunspor (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Samsunspor as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 50% | Trabzonspor 60% BTTS from recent games.

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