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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Samsunspor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Konyaspor make the trip to Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu to face Samsunspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 12:30 UTC.

Form

Samsunspor (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Samsunspor's home record at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Konyaspor have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Konyaspor have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Samsunspor, 1.30 for Konyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Samsunspor lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 3–1 with Samsunspor winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Samsunspor — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Konyaspor — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 48% versus Konyaspor 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 48% | Konyaspor 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.15 xG and Konyaspor 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.730 / defence 0.951 | Konyaspor attack 0.928 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.166. Samsunspor's attack strength of 0.730 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 62 Samsunspor games / 63 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Samsunspor 36% | Draw 35% | Konyaspor 29%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 2.78 | Draw 2.86 | Konyaspor 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Samsunspor at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Samsunspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Samsunspor 40% | Konyaspor 70%.

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