Samsunspor 2-1 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 42% as Samsunspor take on Kayserispor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kayserispor make the trip to Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu to face Samsunspor in Süper Lig (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Samsunspor (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Samsunspor's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 6D 2L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Samsunspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Kayserispor's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Kayserispor's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Samsunspor against 0.70 for Kayserispor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Samsunspor have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with Kayserispor managing 1 and 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2025, ended Samsunspor 3–1 Kayserispor — a Samsunspor win.
The head-to-head data gives Samsunspor an edge — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Samsunspor — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Kayserispor — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 48% versus Kayserispor 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 48% | Kayserispor 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 0.81 xG and Kayserispor 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.641 / defence 0.895 | Kayserispor attack 0.703 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.212. Samsunspor's attack rating of 0.641 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Kayserispor's attack rating of 0.703 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Data: built from Samsunspor's last 61 games and Kayserispor's last 61.
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 30% | Draw 42% | Kayserispor 28%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 3.30 | Draw 2.38 | Kayserispor 3.63. The draw (42%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS Yes probability 33% | Total xG 1.57. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.57 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Kayserispor's lower xG of 0.76 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 42% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 79% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Samsunspor's last 10 home games and Kayserispor's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Samsunspor 30% (last 10 home games) | Kayserispor 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 26 | Venue: Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 15 March 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 30% | Draw 42% | Kayserispor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% (Under 79%) | BTTS Yes 33% (No 67%) | xG Samsunspor 0.81 / Kayserispor 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.641 / def 0.895 | Kayserispor attack 0.703 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Draw (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Kayserispor xG
33%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Samsunspor vs Kayserispor FAQs
What time does Samsunspor vs Kayserispor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Kayserispor kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Kayserispor?
Samsunspor 2 - 1 Kayserispor.
Where is Samsunspor vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Kayserispor part of?
Samsunspor vs Kayserispor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 26) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 30% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 28% chance, and a 42% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Samsunspor and Kayserispor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (67%).
Will Samsunspor vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (79%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Samsunspor's attack rating (0.64) and Kayserispor's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kayserispor's attack (0.70x) against Samsunspor's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from Samsunspor's last 61 games and Kayserispor's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 22.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.30
42%
2.38
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
1.57
0.76
Kayserispor xG
3.30
30%
Home win
2.38
42%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.05
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
12%
8.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.8 | 15.8 | 6.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.8 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Samsunspor vs Kayserispor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.4%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Samsunspor and 0.76 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 1.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Kayserispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Samsunspor come into this having played 61 games, going 26W 18D 17L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, Kayserispor sit at 1.07 PPG from 61 outings (14W 23D 24L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-L across their last five.
Samsunspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Kayserispor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Samsunspor's home form reads 14W 8D 8L across their last 30 home games, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Kayserispor have taken 0.87 points per game from their last 30 away games (4W 14D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Samsunspor are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.05 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Defensively: Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
Samsunspor (Home) vs Kayserispor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Samsunspor
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
❓ Samsunspor vs Kayserispor Form FAQs
What form are Samsunspor and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 26W 18D 17L in their last 61 games (1.57 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 14W 23D 24L in their last 61 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Kayserispor away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.67 PPG; Kayserispor away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Samsunspor or Kayserispor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Kayserispor in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Samsunspor and Kayserispor, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 15 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Samsunspor have taken the most recent 5 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Samsunspor have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Kayserispor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Samsunspor
0
Draws
1
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Samsunspor vs Kayserispor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Kayserispor?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Samsunspor have won 5, Kayserispor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Kayserispor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2026: Samsunspor 2-1 Kayserispor.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Kayserispor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Kayserispor see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 43%, Kayserispor 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Samsunspor) and 40% (Kayserispor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Samsunspor have failed to score in 33% of games; Kayserispor in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Samsunspor vs Kayserispor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Samsunspor and Kayserispor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 53% of Kayserispor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Samsunspor and Kayserispor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Samsunspor's recent games and 40% of Kayserispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Kayserispor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 57% of Kayserispor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Samsunspor edge out Kayserispor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Kayserispor 2-1 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 0.81 xG and Kayserispor 0.76 xG, a combined 1.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Samsunspor beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.64 / defence 0.90 against Kayserispor attack 0.70 / defence 0.95, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 30% | Draw 42% | Kayserispor 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 42%. The actual Samsunspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 48%, Kayserispor 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Kayserispor's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.