Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Samsunspor at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Alanyaspor travel to Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu to take on Samsunspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 May 2027, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Samsunspor — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Samsunspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Samsunspor at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Samsunspor have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Samsunspor, 2 for Alanyaspor and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2026, ended 3–2 with Samsunspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Samsunspor in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 58% versus Alanyaspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 53% | Alanyaspor 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.38 xG and Alanyaspor 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 1.011 / defence 1.154 | Alanyaspor attack 0.881 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.230. Data: 38 Samsunspor games / 38 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 40% | Draw 26% | Alanyaspor 34%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Alanyaspor 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Samsunspor are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Samsunspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 50% | Alanyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 40% | Draw 26% | Alanyaspor 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Samsunspor 1.38 / Alanyaspor 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 1.011 / def 1.154 | Alanyaspor attack 0.881 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Alanyaspor xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 9 May 2027 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
Where is Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 40% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Samsunspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Alanyaspor?
Record (6 meetings): Samsunspor 1W | Draws 3 | Alanyaspor 2W.
What form are Samsunspor and Alanyaspor in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Samsunspor's attack rating (1.01) and Alanyaspor's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Samsunspor's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
40%
2.50
26%
3.83
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.63
1.25
Alanyaspor xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
11%
8.74
9%
11.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.25 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Samsunspor have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 14W 13D 11L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Samsunspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Alanyaspor's form line: 9W 17D 12L from 38 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Samsunspor on 1.45 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Samsunspor have posted 1.53 PPG from 19 outings (7W 8D 4L).
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 2W 12D 5L from 19 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Samsunspor are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.18 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Early Season
Alanyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 14W 13D 11L in their last 38 games (1.45 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 9W 17D 12L in their last 38 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.53 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Samsunspor or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Samsunspor and Alanyaspor runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Samsunspor's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Samsunspor
3
Draws
2
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Alanyaspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 1, Alanyaspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Alanyaspor 2-3 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 32% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 53%, Alanyaspor 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Samsunspor) and 42% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Samsunspor have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Samsunspor's games and 74% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Samsunspor's recent games and 42% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.